Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Still Here.

[margaritaman]

Did reduce my YGR holding after the RSU scam but held on to 100K shares. Nice result for Q1, for once they delivered as promised which has been an issue in the past. Good setup for Q2 if they can keep production flat at 11000 boe. I would expect to see another ~$15M FCF if commocity prices hold.

[Philemon12]

Hope so but they said in the Q1 results: they don't have any new wells coming for now. I suppose the # will decline. how many? What are going to be the effect on the stock price? That's the questions.

[Hendrick3]

Call investor relations. 

[kavern23]

They will have two new belly wells that April will be first full month  of production plus 4 other jv Ferrier wells. Continuing to pay down debt in q2 will be key for stock price. nice thing is q1 should have captured the capital costs for above new wells

[margaritaman]

Kav....big question is how does production hold up. If they are able to maintain 11,000 boe/d with a decent liquids cut (>40%) I see a solid FCF for Q2. If the decline pushes production down to the 10,500 range YGR will get hammered. Not for the faint of heart but huge upside for those with the stomach for it. 

[cfliesser]

I actually don't think holding production matters as much as paying off debt.  Imagine 2 scenarios: 1) 12k BOE and 120M debt 2) 10k BOE and 80M debt I would much rather own #2. Why I asked them to consider lower capital spend last year. I am glad they finally realized this. 

[Flush11]

They need to flatten the decline curve so that commodity prices don't have such a large impact. noticed short positions doubled to 168,000 shares. Still a meaningless low number though. Rex

[kavern23]

Flush the decline curve is going to matter more to Bne, ipo, Obe etc who had a collection of cardium wells still producing flush oil production from the 2023 program..ei 4-10 wells over 100 barrels of oil. ygr didn't have this on dec 31 2023. legacy production is holding and production started to go up quite abit once new wells started to hit in feb and march. q2 likely too be overall higher

[TheRexmember]

Kav bne was only guiding for 14,500 or so for the year. Even with flush production their decline rate is a bit lower than YGR and the oil cut is twice as high so revenue should be holding.  Too bad about the gas price, but whether tBNE pulls back drilling sharply or not they have a big Montney well to tie in plus the 300 odd barrels from Charlie Lake. Growth is baked in there. If anything

[kavern23]

Rex...do you think in Q1 that BNE had a heat dome over their wells and the -40 temp didnt effect their production like it did for every other operator? BNE oil numbers is what matter in Q1 and not their overall production. BNE did 7209 in Q4 for oil and Q1 will be lower. BNE drilled  22 wells in Q1 of 2023 and 11 in Q1 of 2024 with 7 tied in. You will see declines in oil for BNE in first

[kavern23]

Shouldnt be any worries for Q2...liquids production should be similar to Q1. And with NG prices what they are, doesnt matter if NG BOE falls abit. It will be interesting too see where they will drill in June. All of these smaller companies need a stomach for it, but at least YGR has viable well costs now.