Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

YGR share price target

[SHoldd]

What do you think? 

I believe the company is worth somewhere between $300M and $1.2B based on their FCF from 2022-2024. It seems to range from 30M to 120M and that's a conservative 10x or 10% discount rate. While that is a wide range, it is what it is based on FCF and 55M capex and cash flows the past few years, and moost importantly it's a lot more than the current $220M EV. Share price is worth at least $4.00 probably more in an improved commodity price environment and conservative FCF estimates.

[Hendrick3]

I agree that this should be at $4+ to recognize the fundamental value. Unfortunately sentiment drives the oil and gas market at this point in time. Sentiment is a much more irrational valuation but it is the valuation. The valuation of ygr is held back by dislike for the sector especially natural gas, low liquidity, dislike for the management team and an abundance of companies in oil and gas for

[SHoldd]

Irrational sentiment has done that many times before and the share price nonetheless rallied to $6.25 in April 2018 and to $4.10 in June 2022. So there is in fact these 4 year cycles that it takes sentiment to catch up to fundamental performance. I know past performance isn't indicative of future performance, but it would suggest June 2026 next time.  And this isn't just technical

[Hendrick3]

It is absolutely the cheapest stock I have seen. Trading at around 30% of PDP NAV (sector closer to 100%). Share Price to FFO of less than 1.5 times ( sector closer to 3 times) and SP/eps under 3 times (sector around 10 times). Thanks for your perspectives and optimism. Having held an oversized position in this stock for 18 months, I sometimes think I missed something. Your note adds to my

[SHoldd]

It's funny because when I invested in YGR last year it was largely because of the book value and "this being more valuable in bankruptcy than on the market it could literally go bankrupt and I'll triple my money." But I am a lot more focused on cash flow these days as book value is really only important in a crisis which Ben Graham experienced. In solid economic times as I expect

[SHoldd]

Also if you have any more Peters Co energy conference videos from YGR for prior years or any other companies for any years (BNE, OBE, NVA, TOU, LOU) I would again appreciate them. Thank you

[pennydredful]

This   poster  joined  SH    2  days   ago   .   Draw  your  own  conclusions   .  

[SHoldd]

Lol what a nothing comment I think that goes without saying, the alternative being you blindly follow strangers opinions on the internet and even more so if they have been posting longer here like you. Who cares who wrote the post you should focus on things that matter 

[margaritaman]

Jump in SHoldd if it's such a steal. Just looked and 30K shares available for $1.08. What could go wrong? 

[SHoldd]

dont be a douche and assume I have 40k laying around that isn't already in 

[margaritaman]

You made this sound like such a guaranteed return I though you would take out a second mortgage.  I guess your not vying for a board seat. 

[Spos01]

Wow go back and read his post. Are you and Penny the rightful owners of the site or what? Two douche bags who deserve one another. The guys trying to have a conversation, but I guess you two knuckleheads are too good for that. All bow to the mighty Penny and Margarita.  

[SHoldd]

these idiots really think I need to prove myself to them how pathetic 

[Hendrick3]

I am very happy to have hhold on board. The optimism and recognition of the fundamental value of ygr is helpful especially as ygr begins to catch its wave. The difference between old posters and hhold is that when ygr reaches $2, hhold will have doubled his money while the rest of us will be at breakeven. 

[SHoldd]

I was the 4.5k purchase this morning at 9:30 ill double down for 2 more years if i have to 

[Helloworld]

You were almost half the volume today! Crazy low interest in this name.