Tilray Brands Inc TLRY

Good Morning

[skyplt]

I browse this site once or twice a week as, unfortunately, I now own more Tilray than I should.  Ironically, I sold some ENB and WCP in late December to buy more shares of Tilray at 9.10CDN in an attempt to dollar cost average.  I believed, and still believe, Tilray under 10 is a good buy, but seeing 8CDN on Jan 7 was a bit of a blow.

Regarding Budd and Common:  I have followed Aphria since Privateer days and see grains of truth in both of your narratives, and some interpretation to suit your specfic thesis.  A bit of advice guys...your sparring would be much more interesting if you avoided the personal slams.  I am learning a lot from the debate, but wince at the name calling.  It is possible to be on opposite sides of a debate but still be respectful.  In many ways some of the information being presented is just like many in the press suggesting Tilray bought out Aphria where the truth is Aphria actually bought Tilray but kept the name.  Any fact can be twisted to support one's bias.

Budd, though your price predictions have been fairly accurate (I truly wish I sold in November when it was above 16, my DCA prior to my 9.10CDN buy in December was around 15, it is now 14CDN) what I do not see you accounting for is That every LP has virtually the same 1 year chart.  Does each have their unique reasons?  It is the one question that lingers in the back of my mind...how much of Tilray's price decline has been due to macro forces (like SAFE and MORE apparently stalling) like the rest of the LPs, and how much attributable to internal forces like insider selling.  If this price decline was Tilray specific (like it was Aphria specific during the Hindenburg days) I would subscribe to your argument.  But this time around we do not see Canopy achieving new highs while Aphria tries to prove they have an address in Jamaica.  All the LPs had a miserable year.

My view (and so far it has cost me a bundle) is any sort of catalyst will be in the form of M&A activity.  Though Germany and Europe may play a role, watching the politics in the USA gives me little hope of much change on the government front.  I see some of these LPs on life support (primarily HEXO) and will either go bankrupt or be taken over.  I am not sure whether there is much appetite for dilution.  

When I look to the last three years I cannot believe some of the mistakes I made.  For example, I distinctly recall seeing WCP at one dollar (remember when a barrel of oil was trading at MINUS 10 dollars) and thinking I should sell some of my APHA at 6CDN to pick up on that.  I did for for some, but not as much as I should.  WCP is closing in on 9CDN and Tilray lingers in the 8s.  Wow.  I sold a lot of my wife's APHA at 15CDN (missed the Feb spike) and bought ENB at 40CDN.  ENB is now sitting at 52CDN and she has got a nice dividend payment every three months.

The bottomline question for me is whether I think Tilray is going below 5USD (as you suggest Budd) or to 20CDN (where my sell orders are, down from an optimistic 30CDN).  The truth is, I have no idea.  Fortunately none of this is held on margin (I had a lot of APH on margin when Hindenburg broke and I darn near lost everything) so I have the "luxury" of holding.  I am neither buying or selling.  I truly have no idea from one day to the next whether we are going to finish green or red.  Yesterday was a fine example...when I checked in during the AM it was around 8.40CDN and drifting lower...I got busy (with work) and did not look again until after the close and saw 9.60CDN, one penny below the open.  That type of price movement (on no news) confounds me.  As an aside, though it seems like a red herring, I truly hope there is some truth to CBD having some anti Covid capacity if taken orally.  Now that would drive the USA into legalization in a big way as well as bring big pharma in.  Alas, one can dream.

So, thanks to Budd and Common for your debates.  It's difficult to know which facts are facts...but that is not specific to just you two, every site I go to (CBC, CNN, CNBC, FOX, Globe and Mail) has a different version of the "truth."  All the best...Sky.

[skyplt]

Whoops, I should have proof read.  I correctly stated 8.40CDN, but incorrectly stated 9.60CDN for yesterday's close when it was in fact 8.60CDN.  Chalk it up to being a Freudian slip of wishful thinking.

[CommonCentsforDollars]

Hope all is well Sky. Happy New Year to you and your wife! You want a fact, budfox sold at $10 calling for $6 last December and Aphria shot up to $39 and Tilray $67. People posted what they sold the very day they sold, but those become "fake posts". When you point out where he is incorrect there is just childish deflection with the endless name calling and more story telling. It is

[skyplt]

Good morning Momo.  I am taking an online course on thermodynamics and am visiting here for short breaks and a bit of distraction between wading through Conservation of Energy principles. I totally get your take on the shorts and how high the percentage of the float it is.  My view is we are waiting/hoping for some sort of catalyst that will turn this ship around.  Though nobody

[CommonCentsforDollars]

Good morning Sky. Sounds like a heavy duty course to me.  As hevin has pointed out the dailly short volumes are out of hand. When a day goes by with 51% of the entire volume being sold short it sure makes it difficult for the SP to move up. Appears they are pinning it down to put the fear of god into Retail holders while also removing any bounces fairly quickly. Bears are in control. As you

[skyplt]

I recall the first time I saw the Icon...I think it was in Oshkosh around 2012.  I remember being taken aback with it.  I believe a short while later some fairly famour baseball player crashed his into the Gulf of Mexico.  I like the aircraft and what it can do.  I am more familiar with the Seawind.  There are some peculiarities related to pusher props but that is beyond

[CommonCentsforDollars]

Your memory is on point Sky in regards to the baseball player. Went through the Icon A5 accident reports last night and tt was Roy Halladay that crashed his Icon in conjunction with a cocktail of drugs. Seven accidents to date with the Icon and surprisingly most of them were by experienced pilots that just made poor judgement decisions. The accident that surprised me the most was by the designer

[Ventura2020]

There are plenty of aircraft out there that had design flaws. One just recently (Max) But none like the Widowmaker! A rocket with some little wings on it.  Germans lost 292 of 916 aircraft and 116 pilots from 1961 to 1989, nicknaming it the Widowmaker, from the German public. I did an interview many years ago. I asked this old timer...any accidents or incidents? He said - Just one, I

[CommonCentsforDollars]

They were all Pilots that had 5000+ Flight Hours besides Halladay that had 700 Hours of flight time. Majority of the accidents were by pilots that were also experienced on a variety of different aircraft. That is all I was saying. The crashes weren't by newbie pilots as one would expect with the target market of this particular plane..... 1 of the 7 accidents of the Icon A5 happened to be

[Ventura2020]

Never seen that one before, but that bonehead should of rejected that takeoff way back in the video. He stalled it! Poor decision making, by an airline pilot.  As part of training and recurrently, we go over accident scenarios, big airliners going down and why did it happened (called CRM) There are some pretty messed up accidents and you just go WTF were they thinking. Why didn't

[wideopenthrottl]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[skyplt]

BTW common, for a few days (trapped in a hotel room on a layover) I followed the share price quite closely as I noticed the Ask was dropping below the Bid on the Bid/Ask.  It really was a bit of an eye opener when I watch closely, especially at the top and bottom of the hour.  What investor in their right mind puts in an Ask of 8.50CDN when the Bid is sitting at 8.52CDN?  I do not

[DeepTrueShip]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[BudFoxx2020]

Just read your post.  Sky, excellent post and lot of insight.  As for being civil, I always respect everyone's opinion whether bull or bear.  But I have zero tolerance for morons.  Their post can sway the weak minds.  Have you been following Clownmancents post.  Blatant pumping about short squeeze the whole year, day in and day out even when share price was $60+.

[Vinny57]

Bud, you sound like a cranky old PR!CK. ............ Much like myself. Good for you telling it like it is.  If I could give you 2 "thumbs up" I would.

[BudFoxx2020]

The respect is always mutual Vin.  I am not here to pick on anyone just the morons.  I have been in this board 20+ years.  I have a photographic memory.  That's why I can cross reference and find any post easily to prove someone wrong.  And I have always said I respect people that always call it as it is.  You are one of the very few Vinny.  Even when your

[av8tor42]

"I am not here to pick on anyone just the morons"....how many morons in this statement? i can think of one...   oxymoron

[Ventura2020]

I'm just here to say, Good morning! One thing I've learned in life, money helps. But, I can promise you this, it does not bring happiness.   When the stock moves, it will move. always does, always will. May move up, may move down, but it will move. I remember holding it around $4 usd. for months on end.  I get the top end holders (don't like the word Bag), it's tough

[Savage97]

Only Bashers are dumb enough to think people take their posts seriously, or that they're having an effect on the SP.  Vinny was crying that the sky was falling for months before Feb 2021.  GLTA

[CommonCentsforDollars]

Uh oh. You better not make fun of Bozo's loverboy Vinholio !! Might get their panties into a bunch. lmao