Post by
mrmomo on Jul 07, 2023 9:30am
Tilray.....The last dog standing?
Or odd man out? With Canopy about to undergo some dratic transformation, and go into some form of restructuring by filing for Chapter 11 or some massive re-organization & RS, both options which would essentially wipe out all of Canopy's s/h....... along with some possible cosolidation in the sector through M&A........where does that leave poor Tilray? Out in the cold? Or is Tilray just keeping a low profile, trying to buy some time to survive this deadly drought?
In addition, i see nothing has really changed on this board, by just reading the constant spam of dumb comments &info from the usual suspects, it's business as normal, the same garbage which shows they really don't know much of anything. Also all this misleading postings regarding other LP's by down playing the chances, a strong possibility imho, of something like a Cronos-Curaleaf merger. Imo, more likely a buyout of Cronos by Cura rather than a merger of equals. Which would make total sense in my opinion. And i'll tell you why someone like Cura has targeted someone like Cronos.
Any smart investor, especially in this sector & one who is very knowlegeable, KNOWS that entities like Cura, Tilray & others are in deep financial trouble. Especially heavily indebted ones like Tilray, Cura & Canopy. The latter two of which have upwards of $1B in debt & liabilities. In a challenging environment such as this, where it is EXTREMELY difficult to raise & get capital, especially for frowned upon, hated & desperate Cannabis companies, you will do almost anything to survive. And this is EXACTLY what CuraLeaf is doing with this "possible" combo with Cronos, if the rumors have any validity, which i think they do. Because i can SEE the reasons WHY Cura would do this.
You see, Cura & Canopy have serious issues, debt & liquidity. If they're having problems rasing money, and have exhausted ALL other viable options, to the point of it becoming a detriment of even diluting through such as an easy & simple thing as a market ATM, then you have VERY limited options before you. And Cura sees this. TRuly, it would be better for Cura, Tilray, Canopy & everyone else if Cronos goes Bk.......BUT here's the thing.......Cronos is FLUSH with a lot of CASH. And when i mean A LOT ....i mean a truckload full to the tune of about $500M Cdn. Before any says that Cura would be better off merging with Canopy because Canopy has a lot more than what Cronos has & is a biiger company .......which is totally true btw.......please note the following........CuraLeaf would be better of if Canopy goes BK AND more impotantly, they need CASH NOT more debt........And Cronos fits the bill perfectly.....
So imho, if the rumors are really true that Cura has targeted Cronos, then this is more a situation of CuraLeaf mgmt raiding the financial coffers of Cronos than actually buying the small & unprofitiable cannabis operation of Cronos. Which if sucessfull would reduce Cura's debt load by half .....which is a very smart tactical move to survive for another few years & wait out the downtiurn. Use the leverage in the stock, while they are still able to, cost them nothing in terms of money or cash and offer Cronos holders 1 to 1 exchange. Whether they go for it or not or more importantly their major holder Altira does, is a different story. But very smart move none the less by the Cura guys.
Truly, if i look at this from both POV, if i was a Cura s/h, i would support 100% as it would reduce debt by half AND buy time. BUT if i was a Cronos s/h, i would give this a BIG thumbs down!! Why would i as a Cronos holder ( which im not btw of either company) expose my company & interest to someone like a heavily indebted Curaleaf? Cronos while not profitable, has NO debt right now and probably the sole single thing keeping the stock alive. A buyout or merger with Cura would be a death sentence for Cronos holders.....A better option for Cronos s/h would be something i have mentioned several times in the past.......a combo with Aurora. WHy? Because both companies are relatively light on the sales front and desperately need higher revunues AND both are more or less debt FREE AND involved in large part in the Medical portion of the cannabis industry.
Just something to think about AND should be very interesting to see HOW all this plays out over the next few months.......LoTS going on here........MORE popcorn pleeeaasse......!!!
GLTA