Some people have asked for updates from my January 26th/28th posts.
From my perspective Q4 was soft but there was nothing material enough to change the thesis which are based on asset values, cyclical cash flows, improved asset management and capital allocation, and the assumption that the company has enough liquidity/funding sources to avoid bankruptcy. If the price had remained flat I probably wouldn't have done anything and kept updating you guys here.
What happened was the share price declined ~40% and I was adding to my position (taking it beyond my full position limtis) and didn't want to post updates while I was accumulating.
The most significant event from my perspective was released the following day. Interest expense is going down with the refinancing of the debentures at a lower rate and bankruptcy risk has fallen dramatically.
The second most significant event to me has been Morguard's subtle "announcement" that they are taking Temple private. Morguard has increased its position in Temple through open market purchase at the same time that it's purchased shares for cancellation with Temple liquidity. Repurchasing shares increases the ownership % of Morguard in Temple and clearly reinforces a thesis that bankruptcy is unlikely. This is removing the public float without paying a premium which is exactly what you'd expect from someone who understands capital allocation. It also seems like a commitment to meet any temporary funding blips with Morguard liquidity (which has been available more cheaply than I expected/to the benefit of Temple shareholders).
My cost basis is around $3.05 now and for those interested in my thesis/more information please just refer back to my posts on January 26th/28th.
The motivation for this update is that its unlikely for me to be increasing my position and I don't really want to see a decline of 20% in the share price followed by Morguard taking the company private and paying a 20% "premium" that I would have to vote against (and probably still wind up forced into relinquishing my shares to other peoples frustration/people who vote yay).
Good luck to everyone!
Disclaimer: I own shares in TPH (Temple Hotels) and may actively trade them.