Are Changes Looming in Mexico's Drug Outlook and PMonday, December 19, 2011
Are Changes Looming in Mexico'sDrug Outlook and Policies?
Eveline Höpli
The ISN's EditorialPlan coverage of increasedglobal interdependence provides an opportunity to take a look at the Mexicandrug cartels and their security threat beyond the country's borders. Only lastmonth, Mexican marines arrested five suspected members of LosZetas, one of the two mostpowerful and dangerous cartels that dominate the Mexican drug war. However,enthusiasm about this remains dampened since success in capturing or killinghigh-ranked drug traffickers hasn't had any effect on the level of violence inthe country.
When President Felipe Calderon took officein 2006, he announced an aggressive military-led strategy against the drugcartels, totally in line with the American declared "war on drugs." Theextensive use of military forces to support the weak police system has howevercaused a rise in the number of reported human rightsviolations committed by thearmy and led to an increasingly violent war, which has resulted in anestimated 45,000 of deaths since 2006.
Many Mexicans have come to believe thatCalderon has lost the fight against the cartels. The consequences of this aretremendous for the Mexican society and state. But as we know, transnationalorganized crime also has broader effects across countries. The United Stateparticularly suffers from the increased power of the drug cartels in Mexico. Aweakened Mexican state facilitates not only the flow of drugs, but also ofweapons, money and illegal immigrants, which makes it more difficult for the USto control the border.
Just as Mexico serves as animportant anchor of the whole region and affects the other countries withits problems, there are many external factors that too make it difficult forMexico to handle the drug problem. One should bear in mind that the US is theworld's largest consumer of illicit drugs. As the US military shutdown the transit routesleading from Colombia directly to Miami from the 1970's to the 1990's, drugtrafficking is primarily directed through Mexico. This has served to strengthenthe Mexican drug cartels.
However, as Samuel Logan said inan ISNpodcast Calderon's strategyto go directly after the cartels is only one out of many strategies thepresident could choose from. In a new report the Global Commission on Drug Policy (GCDP) urges theinternational community to put an end to the "global war on drugs," and toundertake fundamental reforms in their national and international drug policies.The Commission recommends the countries to pursue a harm reduction approach tothe drug problem, rather than a law enforcement one. Drug users shouldn't becriminalized and hence marginalized; instead they should be offered access tohealth treatment services. The GCDP also encourages governments to experimentwith models of legal regulation of drugs in order to undermine the power oforganized crime.
In September of this year, PresidentCalderon in fact stated that if the US isn't able to limit its drug consumption,then "decision-makersmust seek more solutions - including market alternatives - in order to reducethe astronomical earnings of criminal organizations." Although Calderon chose his words carefully, itcan be interpreted that he recommends the US to consider the legalization ofdrugs. This constitutes a major shift in the president's previous policy and ahuge step in the direction of a more comprehensive approach to the drugproblem.
It remains to be seen if Mexico is seriousabout this change in policy and if the US is willing to deviate from itszero-tolerance approach and establish new forms of regional counter-narcoticscooperation any time soon. Because one thing is for sure, as long as drug demandin the US is fueling the drug trafficking, Mexico stands no chance of winningthe fight against the cartels.
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Eveline Höpli is Student Editor at theInternational Relations and Security Network (ISN), and a senior at theUniversity of Zurich. Multilingual, her major is InternationalRelations.