TriOil Resources Ltd TRIAF

700 bopd IP / 180 bopd average?

[skeksis]

I know horizontal fracture stimulated wells decline hyperbolically but I have never seen such a large disconnect between the IP and the average production over the first 30 days.  I tried fitting those numbers to an Arps curve, but the numbers don't really make sense without more data.  Where do you think the production will stabilize?  80 bopd or so?

[grinch]

Skeksis,I would agree that there is not enough data as we do not even know if the well produced for the full 30 days etc....I think if you look at the Garrington type wells, they consensus appears to be 175 IP and declining 55 - 60% in the first year with a 125,000 to 150,000 TP in reserves generating a 35% ROI on $75 WTI.The neat thing about this play is as it is further west, the thought is

[GreatSwami]

"...the thought is wilh all the faulting closer to the mountains you will have more natural fracturing in the rock, thus giving you higher IP and more importantly bigger reserves..."While the first part is correct - with more natural fracturing you will get higher IPs. The second part is a non sequitur. In order to get more reserves you need more porosity. (The fractures provide very

[skeksis]

Thank you.   This is the most clear explanation that I have seen of why decline curves are shaped the way they are.Regarding Trioil, the one thing that I take out of their news release is that they could have simply told us the IP and let our imaginations run wild, but instead they waited until they had more production history.  This is a good thing and gives me confidence that they won&