Post by
TheActuary on May 25, 2018 10:31am
MJ - True Leaf due diligence
This is a post I've written today on an investor forum page about MJ: MJ - True Leaf Here we go, after my analysis on VGW when stock price was 1.33, I'm ready to share my due diligence on a 2nd stock that has a lot of potential and is unknown to many investors: MJ - True Leaf. The pet industry is often called a "niche" market as the potential is underestimated. There is a reason why Canopy acquired Canopy Animal Health and is developing this segment. However, True Leaf is the market leader at the moment and have already in place a retail distribution. This is huge as their hemp-based products are already in stores across the world. They just launched their hemp-based products for cats as well which will boost sales. Sales: In the 4 quarters in 2017, sales were approximately of 100k in Q1, 300k in Q2, 470k in Q3 and 270k in Q4. In Q1 2017, they moved the manufacturing facility in the US. Sales in Q4 2017 were less than expected due to the crowdfunding in the US that took a lot of effort, but where they raised over 14M. My personal projection for 2018 given they added cat products is approximately 3 millions in sales (not counting the pure-CBD products that will be developped this year that has a way bigger potential) . The cost of sale is about 62.5% which provides a decent margin. There is 95M outstanding shares, 5.44M warrants at 0.45 and 6M optins at an average of 0.55 so there is NO cheap papers. On a fully diluted basis at a stock price of 0.52, they have a market cap of 55M with 14M cash + 5.5M cash coming from warrants /options. 55M market cap and almost 20M cash, this is very undervalued. Insider ownership is also very important and Darcy the CEO owns approximately 25M shares and didn't sell a single share on the public market in the last few years. The current cash in hand is coming from a crowdfunding where they raised 10M from US investors (no holding period) and 4.2M from Canadian investors 4-month holding period that just unlocked). The raise was done at 70 cents with NO warrants. This is very important to keep a tight float. Remember that HVT just spent 34.5M for a retail distribution by acquiring Dream Water that is not even profitable. I'm not saying that HVT overpaid, but it's to highlight how True Leaf worldwide retail distribution is worth a lot and on its own, it justifies their market cap. Business plan: I personally like to invest in the market leader and this is what True Leaf is about. I'm impressed by their current sales of hemp-based products and their retail distribution is very important, but their business goal is to provide pure-CBD products. The construction of the facility is well underway in Lumby (North Okanagan) for a production of 2,000 kgs and I expect a production license by end of summer. The laboratory will be key as they will extract pure CBD. I invite you to read this article to understand the importance of pure CBD and the potential of CBD for pets: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/cannabidiol-dogs-essex-health-canada-veterinarian-1.4642548 Best of Luck and as always, do your own due diligence (p.s. I own a LOT of shares!)