Uranium Energy Corp UEC

👨‍🏫If U are a newbie to #Uranium⛏️👶 that's heard about an

[mangoe]

John Quakes

@quakes99 -

If U are a newbie to #Uranium that's heard about an #AI-boosted global #Nuclear resurgence and are considering #investing in U #mining #stocks then this post is for U! Timing-wise, U are in the right place at the right time as many U stocks were in meltdown at the end of 2024 deeply oversold and just now beginning to recover as the Spot price is rebounding from a year-end dip. This could be your "Buy Low" moment if you've done your research!

U are damn lucky, too! A few years ago, understanding the Uranium investing thesis relied on conducting your own deep dive into the weeds to figure out the very complex supply and demand situation that was just beginning to swing from a bear to bull market. Countless hours of technical reading, while building your own spreadsheets and supply vs demand models, were necessary to graduate from the class of knowledgeable Uranium investors. Today, life is easy for the newbie U investor as the pendulum has swung to a "clear as day" structural supply deficit that's plain for all to see.

Folks like Mr.

@TDLamb

at

@MyriadUranium

have already done your homework for U by producing easy-to-read graphics using industry data sourced from highly-respected Nuclear & Uranium fuel consultants, professional associations & expert analysts.

The data now clearly shows that there is a deep and growing supply deficit that, even after restarting all of the mines that were shut down during the bear market (aka brownfield) and assuming that all of the major uranium deposits under development today are licensed, built and go into production (aka greenfield) there still won't be enough supply to meet just the needs of the world's reactors in operation & under construction today!

That's right! A decade of under-investment, mine closures, delayed or cancelled greenfield projects and post-COVID supply chain disruptions have left the supply side in tatters and unable to respond quickly enough to even meet the essential fuel requirements of the current nuclear fleet! Money is tight, costs are rising, past Uranium mining and milling expertise has been lost and a new trained workforce is needed in a world where few young people have any interest in mining at all. Not to mention the regulatory hurdles, public pushback, raised environmental standards and the usually long, complicated and expensive permitting process before building a new mine even gets off the ground. Mining is hard.. and getting harder with each passing year.

As the chart states, using data published by world-leading Nuclear fuel industry consultants UxC (the primary source of Uranium supply/demand data for the world's Nuclear utilities), in 2024 the global U demand was estimated to be around 200 Million lbs while mined production is estimated to come in at around 157 Million lbs for a ~42 Million lbs production deficit just last year.

Some of that deficit gap gets filled by drawing down inventory cushions (now at historic lows), securing secondary supply (now almost exclusively produced in Russia and unavailable in the West), relying on short-term contracts with carry traders (the carry trade relies on availability of cheap lbs in the thin Spot market) with fingers crossed that restarted past-producing mines can quickly ramp up production (not happening) and new mines and mills in the development stage will get permitted, financed, built and into production as scheduled (never happens).

With Nuclear fuel demand firm and growing, while supply is constrained by a long list of economic & geopolitical roadblocks, the resulting market imbalance will lead to fierce competition for available supply, which will drive U prices far higher until that imbalance is eventually resolved... sending the share prices of U miners, developers and explorers soaring as the wave of needed capital finally flows into the sector.

We could run through all the future demand scenarios... 31 nations pledging to triple nuclear for net-zero energy security, restarting shuttered reactors, ending further nuclear phase-outs by extending existing units, global decarbonization of electricity/heavy industry/transportation using nuclear, Big Tech building massive nuclear-powered AI data centers, mass factory-made production of small modular reactors (SMR) in a Nuclear Renaissance.. or dig down the many geopolitical, regulatory, and supply chain disruption rabbit holes... but there's really no need for that anymore. Rapidly growing fuel demand and delayed/disrupted/banned supply in a bifurcated East vs West global uranium market just throws more gasoline on the coming Uranium bull market bonfire!

The market dynamics are now lighting up a flashing neon 'SOS' sign telling Nuclear fuel buyers that there won't be enough supply to meet demand. Massive amounts of investment capital need to flow into the Uranium sector (ie. producers, developers, explorers) in order to discover, develop, finance and construct the new mines needed to eventually bring supply back into balance with demand in the distant future... IF far higher Uranium prices give greenfield producers the construction signals needed.

That's your investment opportunity, if you choose to seize it. As always, be sure to do your own research and invest according to your own unique financial goals, expectations, risk appetite, time horizon, investing style and strategy. It's your money, so invest it wisely.

Wishing you good luck with your due diligence and investments in 2025!

 

 

1:12 PM · Jan 5, 2025

·

4,206

Views

[plumena3]

the negative here is  the fuel buyers are NOT coming to the table.  maybe waiting for Trump to make a deal with the ``Vlad``   and the the gates open up again and the cheap uranium products are back on the market and the thesis collapses.

[GSTbay1060]

a bit of a stretch here. When Mr Trump does whatever, even if he gets the sanctions the senate and congress voted in, overturned by them there is still the problem of the RAW u3o8.. Russia just provided services.. American utilities always had to ship back the raw materials after the converted material was received in the USA.. So with no new projects coming online and the demand continuing to

[plumena3]

do you know how much material  the utilities have in storage ?  No they did not come to the table  so far will the Kazakhstan issue be resolved soon ? will the Trump admin favour oil ,coal and gas over nuclear , (nuclear plants are much more costly than the others. small nuclear reactors are far in the future. and the so called experts BMO (if I remember correctly) called for

[GSTbay1060]

I think if you look at Mr Rule's latest interview he has stated a couple of things. .. most people enter into a five year trade and expect results in three months.. .. the scenario is the best he has ever seen in his career in the uranium sector.. ... there are no guarantees so do your own due diligence.. glta dyodd