Post by
Capetonian on Aug 01, 2024 5:23am
The future....
It's not every day you get gifted 4+ TCF of gas, near 1bn bbls of liquids and considerable exploration/appraisal upside for nothing. Quite why the markets see this as a negative right now is beyond me.
AEC have just received a 10 fold increase in discovered reserves, free of charge. I wouldn't ordinarily see this as a reason why the share price should crater like it has. Perhaps the opposite should occur. Whilst it's a technical challenge to develop the field, clever engineers will always find a way. AEC have alot of commercial headroom here to bring in a major partner. If they gave away 60-70% of the project to a capable operator with a full or significant carry, they've materially improved their commercial position and value. If the SP was depressed with the prospects of a capital raise, that downward pressure may now disappear due to the huge increase in licence equity they can bring to the table in any farm-out discussions.
With Johnny Copelyn and Phutuma Nhleko (and others) close to the AEC pulse, they've got 2 proven and capable players, undoubtedly well versed in how to deal with SA vested and competing interests and government inertia, to steer this project across the lines of regulatory consent and a positive commercial outcome.
I see material upside in this company, but, as my aged grandmother always used to tell me, do your own research, reach your own conclusions, make your own decisions and embrace counter-intuitiveness. She did well in the markets.