Artemis Gold Inc V.ARTG

Flies In The Ointment

[AlwaysLong683]

1) Need an updated Feasibility Study. As far as I can tell, the last one produced was released September 13, 2021 (18 months ago), with inflation beginning to shoot up right around that time plus rising interest rates starting in March 2022. Thus, I suspect cost estimates for the Blackwater Project have increased significantly since that study was completed as a number of building contracts have been signed since then in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment, so it's out of date in my view and the numbers are likely not going to be as impresive (by how much is the question) if an updated study is completed and releasaed.

One thing MOZ has done right is produce an updated Feasibility Study released December 7, 2022 (5 months ago). 


2) Would like to see most if not all of those 31M outstanding warrants exercised at 1.08 to get them baked into the share price going forward. Don't like to see 16% share dilution at 1.08 when the current share price is around 4.50.

[metalhead666]

What's the price of gold done since 18 months ago?  The project is on track, on budget and the free cash flow starting in less than 18 months is going to blow you away.  That's if we're not bought out before then which would be fine

[AlwaysLong683]

The price of gold has indeed increased, but I suspect the cost numbers (Operating Cost, AISC, etc.) will come in higher too. I bet the cost overrun facility ($40M) will be used in addition to the money from the exercise of the warrants, and another equity raise and/or debt financing done before first pour. Here's a list agreements that were signed after the September 13, 2021 Feasibility

[jedd11]

An updated Feasibility Study would be constructive and there will certainly be inflationary pressures as suggested but cost increases are likely to be reasonable. Artemis is targeting 55 to 60% of Phase 1 capex to be done with fixed price EPC contracts. All mine developers are subject to current inflationary pressures. There is no other management that I would rather want in place to keep capex

[AlwaysLong683]

I think ARTG management have in the past shown themselves to be good mine builders using clever techniques to de-risk projects, but the fact is back in September 2021 when ARTG put out its Feasibility Study:   1) Canadian inflation was starting to rev up and was running at about 4.0 - 4.5%. We then saw a steady rise through the 5's and 6's all the way up to 8.1% in June 2022 and

[hcarbon]

I think your posts are valid, especially now that artg not respond to the latest price action i gold. Of course there will be cost increases but as others pointed out the pog is also up significant. From news release May 2, 2022. Awards Process Plant EPC. "The award amount of approximately $312 million is consistent with the prescribed budget for the process plant and selected infrastructure

[metalhead666]

You are correct. That's nearly half the entire cost right there.  Gold and Silver are up significantly. The NPV and expected free cash flow are off the charts. Artemis remains the BEST precious metal project out there ...fully permitted, derisked, on budget, on time and only months away from throwing off huge piles of cash

[hcarbon]

...and with insiders that owns a lot...!

[metalhead666]

They are NOT borrowing anymore money so rates don't matter.  They are fully financed and have contracts in place. They just hedged off a pile at near all time high prices. The dliution is nothing considering the 350 MILLION $ free cash flow for year after year. There's not a mine in existence that builds a project for free!   All the financials are based on FULLY DILUTED

[AlwaysLong683]

1) Smart to hedge at the current gold price. Agree it further de-risks the project. Would have been even better IMO if they hedged a larger number of ounces. The term for delivery of the 100,000 ounces is March 2025 to December 2027, but according to their September 2021 Feasibility Study, they expect to produce 325,000 ounces in each of the first five years, Thus, they have 100,000 out of an

[metalhead666]

Move on...clearly this is too high risk for you. They don't need a feasibility study update...waste of time and money at this point as the build is well underway. The shelf offering is entirely common and Artemis has hinted at going directly to phase 2 which would cost more but would produce more....you don't get a bigger mine for free. The "bottom line" is that things change.

[metalhead666]

And you seem to ignore that the current NPV is 3.5 BILLION with an IRR over 40% and a payback period that's now under 2 years. Go find me another project this robust, derisked and on the cusp of producing over 300,000 ounces per year at one of the lowest all in sustained costs on the planet. 

[metalhead666]

At 0.6 x NPV the stock is worth DOUBLE its current price. That's where it's going.  It will eventually trade at 1x NPV or better making it a $15 CAD stock....that's where it's going.

[AlwaysLong683]

That's right metal - keep using very outdated cost estimates calculated before inflation and interest rates jumped higher by the most in 40 years along with gold prices which are currently at all-time highs in your calcuations. I suspect ARTG will not only exceed their 2021 Feasibility Study cost estimates, but you do realize that 89% of their gold production for the first 2-3 years remains

[metalhead666]

Spot on.