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To recap, Iran has made the threat, and the United States stands ready to use force to keep oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key point for Gulf producers and a route for about 20 per cent of the world's crude. The EU won't decide on an Iranian oil embargo for at least six months.
As Mr. Weinberg notes in a report titled "The next thing to worry about," 18 per cent of U.S. supplies and 13.8 per cent of euro zone supplies come from the region. "So this is a big deal and a volatile situation."
A significant jump in oil prices would be ill-timed as the euro zone heads back into recession, and the United States struggles to climb back.
"If we see military adventurism by Iran and a 'shock' to oil supplies, we can guess that oil prices will rise sharply, although it is hard to know how far," Mr. Weinberg said.
"The 2008 high of $145 per barrel is as good a stalking horse as any. That would be $35 per barrel, or 32 per cent more than today's price."