Bedrocan Cannabis Corp. V.BED

Bedrocan** (revised)

[Meno111]

Please feel free to correct any mistakes or add any additional information.
 
February 17,2015 the company received a second license from HC for a period of one year (subject to license renewal) to begin domestic production in the first 6 grow rooms out of 34.
 
May 15, 2015 the company received approval from HC to activate additional 12 growing rooms at its Greater Toronto Area (GTA) facility. To date, 18 out of 34 production rooms, including trimming and drying rooms have been inspected and licensed. When fully licensed and operational the new facility is capable of producing approximately 4000kg of medical cannabis per year.
 
Currently in their newly licensed facility, Bedrocan has been able to increase their production 10x in 2015 and looking to expand further into the year with 12 newly licensed grow rooms increasing their total production by 20x.
 
The newly licensed grow rooms would significantly increase their gross profit margins from 37% (587,457/1,574,174) to an estimated 80%.
 
            Inventory:
           
            December 2, 2014: License renewal
                                                240kg
            January 31, 2015 (representing 13months)
                                                1,574,174/7.50 = 209,890g = 210kg
                                                Surplus Inventory = 27-30kg
            May 25, 2015 Harvest
                                                4000kg = 34
                                                6/34grow rooms= 17.65%
                                                4000*0.1765= 706kg
            2015 Expansion
                                                18/34grow rooms = 52.94%
                                                4000*0.5294= 1900-2118kg
                                               
 
2015 Estimated Total Inventory: 973kg
2015 Estimated Sales Revenue:
            973kg * 7.50 = $7,297,500
 
 
           
Break Even Analysis: (FC/p-v)
 
Variable Cost/Unit
            986,717/209,890g = 4.70
Price/Unit
            7.50
Total fixed costs for 13 months ended January 31, 2015
            3,159,594
 
            Break Even in Sales units (x) & Dollars (x)
                       
            3,159,594/ (7.5-4.7) = 1,128,426g = 1,128kg
            7.5*1,128kg = $8,460,000
 
 
At their current rate Bedrocan would be close to breaking even at the end of the year. Unless they could get a few grow rooms fully operational and harvested by q3-q4. They would definitely need financing soon in order to keep moving since their burn rate has increased, the annual lease payments and secured loan from the land lord alone is costing them almost 900k a year.  
 
My other concern for Bedrocan is the rate of their patient acquisition. It seems that their revenue from q4 of 487k was about the same as q3 493k.

[Trennam]

Very nice analysis. I was just about to post some numbers but you haver done a much better job than I could. Cocerning patient numbers: their import limit of 240kg has so far kept them from increasing or taking on too many patients because of this limited supply constraint. Moving forward from today (first day of domestic harvest! Now awaiting their internal testing, further HC testing and

[Meno111]

Thanks Trenman. Hopefully they've built a nice waiting list in the meantime and maybe we could get an update on the upcoming harvest in terms of where they moving towards 2015 q2

[jb24]

Great Analysis Meno. I think the big picture is important here. We have a company who will be growing from  revs 1.6 mill to 7-8 mill, yr/yr. The third and forth q last yr indicates that they ran out of supply, not customers. They will have a huge surplus (with a new harvest each week from now on)  and, to my knowledge, it could be sold to any country/ state where it is legal to buy and