CanAsia Energy Corp V.CEC

Statistical Estimates of Net Asset Value

[nozzpack]

This can be approximated by anyone through a few calculations.

The key here is the value of the Thai investment, the net book value and quarterly oil prices.

Quarter       Oil Prices                   Thai Invest                   Book value

Q2                  $68.83                     $21.7 m                        $49.8 m
Q3                  $73.47                     $24.6 m                        $52.2 m
Q4                  $79.58                    ( $28.4 m )                   (  $56.0  m )

$28.4 m = $24.6 m less $21.7 m  times 6.11/4.64    where $4.64 = gain in oil price from Q2 to Q3 and $6.11 is gain in oil price from Q3 to Q4 which equals about 1.32 elevation factor.

Whence $24 .6 less $21.7 times  1.32     = $3.83 gain in Thai Invest at exit Q4/21 which boosts Thai value at $28.4 m at exit Q4/21  

This amount boosts the book value to $56 million at exit Q4 which is about $1.12 per share.

The question is whether the buyer will pay more than the fair value of the Thai Investment ( $28.4 m ).

Its my opinion that the buyer wont as the shareholders might not see that as getting good value.

This is a personal judgement based on historical outcomes.

So, my call is about  $1.15 per share in book value at Exit Q4/21 ,which, after the dividend is paid ,  reduces to $0.75 per share for the rump which will contain about $37.5  million or so in net cash after the Thai invest is sold and remaining liabilities and transaction costs are paid.

GLTA

[nozzpack]

My apologies for errors in my estimates of reserves NAV Assumptions in which the reserve Report is based.. The capital cost and operating expense inflation rate is 0% per year in 2022 and 2.0% per year starting in 2023. This will clearly not be the case as inflation is now above 8%. Delete $0.75 per barrel from my estimate Of $28.4 m . I forgot to include future undiscounted