Post by
nozzpack on Oct 21, 2024 10:45am
Very Appropriate Valuation Junior
It's Jaguar ( JAG ) which at $5.25 has a market cap of $425 million.
Production rate is identical at 65,500 ounces per quarter which is about 66,000 ounces per year.
Jaguar has 81 m shares and Cerrado has 103 million.
Jaguar has a high AISC of $1555 US per ounce..higher than that of CERT.
The big difference is in the balance sheets.
But, Cerrado is now rapidly increasing its working capital by paying down $12 million US in debt in Q2.
Another 16,500 production in Q3 will accelerate its liabilities pay downs....
So, Cerrado is now on the tract towards JAGs fair value.
I remove $150 million from JAGs valuation, accounting for most of CERTs largest liabilities , which suggests a current fair market cap value of about $275 million which is about $2.60 per share.
As is typical of my risk averse valuation, I divide by 2 and arrive at an interim fair value of about $1.30
per share .
So, multiples of upside from here without undue risk to capital.
AIMHO
GLTA
Comment by
nozzpack on Oct 21, 2024 4:48pm
Beginning this quarter,and at $2700 POG, CERT will generating annual revenues of about $250 million CAD per year. Succesful investing is all about forward evaluation..