Cielo Waste Solutions Corp. V.CMC

Doesn’t compute

[lscfa]

Co's forecast only works if price for product is less than $1.67 boasted. Also the $70 million ebitda includes JV partner's share. Exclude that and it's down to $50 million.  

"In addition to the pilot/test facility in Aldersyde, Cielo also plans to complete one corporate facility and one JV facility by end of year 2023. With all three plants operating at full capacity Cielo expects to see revenues of approx. $125 million in 2023, with expected EBIDTA of approximately $70 million."

 

 

	Aldersyde	Edmonton	JV Plant	Total
Litre/hour	2000	4000	4000
Litre/yr	16,368,000	32,736,000	32,736,000	81,840,000
Price /litre	$1.53	$1.53	$1.53
Revenue	25,043,040	50,086,080	50,086,080	125,215,200
Cost/litre	$0.75	$0.60	$0.60
ebitda/litre	$0.78	$0.93	$0.93
Project ebitda	12,767,040	30,444,480	30,444,480	73,656,000
Ceilo share	12,767,040	30,444,480	9,133,344	52,344,864
Corp. Costs				(5,000,000)
Corp ebitda				47,344,864
Shs o/s				649,982,833
ebitda/sh				$0.073
Multiple				15
Sh value				$1.093

[RagingBull84]

Since you know so much Iscfa, why didn't you call in to Market Call today and tell McWhirter how wrong he is, with your doesn't compute theory? Are you worried about being schooled by a pro?    

[Ptinvestor99]

Your selling price should be min what they already have a contract for (1.67), and if fuel costs are going up as predicted, that selling price will increase as well. I think then you can use cielo's share of jv at 30% till they recoup their costs (then cielo takes 50%)

[DougInGreen]

Price will go down as they produce more fuel. That's just supply and demand. The price right now is dictated by the fact that fuel distributors at least in canada are required to have a certain percentage of bio-diesel mixed in. If that wasn't the case there would be no market for biodiesel at all as the oil companies certainly aren't going to pay more for diesel than it costs them to

[JustLookn]

Hi Doug.  I very much respect your posts, I look to yours first.  One consideration, I do think there is potential to sell the product at a premium even as supply increases.  (While the current market is an artificially created, government mandated market I believe they can change this status.) I have believed this for a while but even Bob confirmed today when he said that

[DougInGreen]

Firstly thank you for the kind words. There is a very real challenge that Cielo is going to face which has not been discussed at all on this board and that is offtake agreements. This is not an area I have expertise in but was lucky enough to have a conversation with someone who used to work in the agricultural bio-diesel space. Before I go any further check this link out: https://www

[lscfa]

Don't assume the fuel purchase deal at $1.67/litre is the norm. It was distorted by other considerations.      November 23, 2020 - Cielo announces it has received pre-payment in full for a 60,000 litres of renewable diesel, which is now being produced at the Company's Aldersyde waste to renewable fuel facility. The renewable diesel will be shipped to a third party of the

[JustLookn]

Its an interesting discussion, I've had bit of a debate with an oil/gas guy as well and he raised same issues.  His issue is both distribution and market size.  Neither bother me. He's thinking like a traditional oil/gas company, to traditional, this will not be a traditional company. The renewable diesel market is currently an artificial market that they will capitalize on to

[JustLookn]

I haven't compared these numbers to ones Cielo has presented. Are these theirs or yours?