Canada Nickel Company Inc V.CNC

What about Dumont...

[Sean8520]

@Sean8520 I sold the bulk of my position (95k shares) of CNC over the last few days for maybe 10% gain or so. I still have 10k shares. I wish everyone well but since I posted such raving reviews over the last few months I figured I owed it to share my selling. To be clear, I am not trying to boo (apparently c$rap is not allowed lmao) on the company and I’ll be checking here much less frequently since I have less vested interested but my thinking has changed dramatically. I initially was blown away with the opportunity listening to Mark. I think Mark is the model of a CEO for a junior mining stock, he is awesome and I even subscribed to Crux to listen to his updates. Here’s my concerns… I was looking at the valuations initially of the four companies in the investor slide deck. More researched revealed they were all well over 1% Nickel. OK I thought, he often references three low-grade mines in Australia that were all taken over by BHP (Mount Keith, Yakabindie and Nebo-Babel). More research reveled that they are around 0.60% Nickel with a *cutoff* between 0.25-.40% Nickel (higher than majority of CNC). I thought a catalyst would be First Nation Support. Two MOU’s, one with access to funding, no response from Market. The met work was another catalyst I thought. A few points better than Dumont with that high grade core. After being due in November then a December 1st PR that states the results were delayed (gulp). (Hopefully they are better than expected?) haha. Once they came out is what really changed my mind. So far it’s actually a few points less than Dumont, which is 53% years 1-7, 47% years 8-19 and then 43% LOM. It’s not fair to compare the 51% and 46% of Crawford to a 43% LOM at Dumont. Similarly, the ‘bookended’ samples were 0.41% and 0.26% Ni. The 0.41% is overly optimistic, the average HGC is 0.31% (maybe even 0.34% for the 201MT) so I am assuming actual recovery will be lower. And the 0.26% is not representative of the bulk of the material which is actually 0.21%. Then they throw in the MgO comment which I think is a huge red flag. I don’t think it’s nearly as clean a concentrate as hoped for which taked much of the EV out of the picture. Cobalt recovery is essentially nil, being 17% of 0.013% and the PGM’s are still pending? Yes, there is the wall of higher PGM’s and that’s still hopeful but the PGM’s within the actual zone seem like a bust since they say they can partially or fully offset the MgO penalty. I have been following this company extremely closely and the last PR was the first time I heard of recoveries for a specific block be 10-15% *up to* 60%. Seems like a lot more potential downside then upside. Check out the Dumont and compare. I was shocked that Dumont was 0.33% Ni years 1-7 with a 53% recovery. And to think that 28% sold for 7 million cash with potential of 40 million more that sold in July (Canadian dollar, implied valuation around $230M CAD). I know Karora needed cash but I realize I don’t care how quick CNC gets permitted if it’s just gonna sit there. Is Karora they shooing away offers of $1B…$500M…$300M? If not, when will it get there? https://dumontnickel.com/en/dumont-project/ The absolute worst news for me was seeing the battery-grade split. 58% of HGC (using 0.41% nickel, not representative so more like 50% hopefully on HGC) and then only 32% of LGC (again, using 0.26%, not representative of the mostly 0.21%). This takes most of the wind out of sails of the green EV companies, there’s just not enough. 30% of potentially a…90,000 tpy nickel…doesn’t make sense, it’s too small a total tonnage battery-grade. Maybe there is potential for NetZero SS but not sure. Which bring me to NetZero…not hearing anything… Any VB comparison is faulty. That stock soared because of the drill results, they didn’t even have a PEA and relations were non-existent with First Nations (I read the book Robert Friedland and the Voisey’s Bay Hustle I was that into this company!). Again, not trying to be negative but just so this place isn’t an echo chamber. Overall I think it’s a good stock to have a small position for the long term but that may be years and may not be a multi-bagger if there is not some higher grade nickel or PGM’s. If a PEA comes out and still no movement (or maybe $2.50 CAD, then what…pull back and more nothing). I moved some money into Talon. Not here to promote, but I realized they had over 1% and were getting drill results of 5%-8% for a decent number of meters. They also make a good case for what Elon meant when he said Efficiently and Environmentally. Moving 2200 pounds of material for less than 4 pounds of nickel is not efficient. It’ll be underground. I’m not a huge fan of it being in USA, I wish it were Canada, but Minnesota is a decent place. Initially I was uninterested because they showed an 8 year production plan but then I saw they have barely touched the surface. They are not moving quickly and keep issuing shares but it’s worth looking into. I’d be interested to discuss this next year in Talon if anyone has an interest, there is no talk at all on that board. I can only imagine if Selby were the CEO of that company, this thing would be through the moon. Cheers, and GLTA.

[Sean8520]

I don't know how to fix everything becoming one paragraph, that looks like way too much of a ramble, sorry

[idlefreebird]

I see your concerns , but the higher price expectation in nickel will  bring all worries away...GLTU in future investements.

[Sean8520]

If you could actually make that post out than awesome haha, and agreed with the overall macro but it wasn't what I was dreaming of which was a short-term 10-40x I was dreaming of. It'll get there (not to that extremes), but even FPX is up 25-40% since I thought about buying and really it's just a matter of me not diversifying even within the nickel space...I'm learnin'

[idlefreebird]

Sean , the big picture is still a 10x from here as the mass of nickel is there..the big company like Glencore will have this mining sequence over 100,000 tpd giving  them a nice supply in the market...keep in mind Mark is keeping it small for initial capex picture..i was also disapointed in low carbon recoveries , but we are looking at nickel as key ingredient,,,especialy low CO2 NICKEL..GLTU

[Sean8520]

Dumont...think about it...once that goes for substantial dollars I'm in. While it sits there, fully permitted with 15 billion pounds of nickel with grades and recoveries higher than CNC then imo the only thing left to bring CNC up is higher grade, again imo. Dumont Feasibility study was $920M...so what. FPX was 1.7B and they are looking to drill potentially higher grade...so what? Not trying