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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Ceapro Inc V.CZO

Ceapro Inc. is a Canada-based biotechnology company. The Company is involved in the development of extraction technology and the application of this technology to the production of extracts and active ingredients from oats and other renewable plant resources. Its primary business activities relate to the development and commercialization of natural products for personal care, cosmetic, human... see more

TSXV:CZO - Post Discussion

Ceapro Inc > What could the next 18 months be worth?
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Post by prophetoffactz on Jan 22, 2023 7:52am

What could the next 18 months be worth?

Step-wise and realistic plans are now in process that provide increasing visibility concernng where CZO could be in the next 12-18 months. CZO has the cash to deliver.

What could the next 18 months be worth if...

1) CZO completes the Phase !/IIa avenanthramide clinical trial? The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory market is worth $65 billion according to Gilles and a typitcal drug can receive 7-10% market share in its launch year which would be $5.5 billion in revenue at the mid-point. In 18 months CZO could have safety, tolerability data and hints of efficacy in humans from a Phase I/IIa clinical trial. In the past CZO has then talked about licensing the product to a pharma company. Put a potential dollar value on that. I dare you!

2) A 'go' or 'no go' decision for the fibrosis Phase I clinical trial is anticipated in the second half of this year. Dr. Ask and Dr. Kolb have expressed excitement about the program. The scientific literature has pointed to the importance of macrophages. Dr. Ask, and Dr. Kolb have worked with Avalyn Pharma in the past and it raised ~C$80 million preclinically for its inhaled IPF drug ahead of a Phase I clinical trial. Unlike Avalyn's drug which is an inhaled version of a currently marketed drug CZO's drug could also be a standalone. COVID wasn't around when Avalyn raised that ~C$80 million preclinically. Over 40% of deaths world-wide are also attributable to fibrosis and CZO's drug could be applicable beyond the lungs. CZO's carrier could also carry drugs for other diseases. Put a potential dollar value on this program in the next 18 months. I dare you!

3) In the past CZO has said that a 40 million dose plant for PGX-YBG could have a $100 million NPV assuming a 25% discount rate and 10 year time horizon. What could the discount rate be with a successful 5X scale-up as is being attemped right now? What could that $100 million NPV be in 18 months? CZO could also support its first commercial revenue with this scale-up providing commercial validation and cashflow limiting dilution and supporting the scale-up to 40 million doses.

4) Given CoQ10 is a potential $1 billion market what could this program be worth if CZO signs a licensing deal with a life sciences company? The bioavailability data CZO has shown dwarfs the gold standard and PGX-OBG's results which only had the limitation of cost we are told after discussions with industry.  "Diseases such as neurodegenerative diseases, fibromyalgia, diabetes, cancer, mitochondrial diseases, muscular diseases, and heart failure are associated with decreased circulating levels of CoQ10." The CoQ10 data further points to the possibility of using PGX as a Trojan Horse to deliver bioactive to macrophages for delivery in the body. 

5) What could another year of growth be worth for the base business given CZO has hired a new CRO to target new customers and potential business lines in 2023; as well as given the new Symrise agreement.

Plans to achieve the above step-wide and realistic targets are now in process. CZO has the cash to execute on the above as never before. What could the market cap of CZO be in the next 18 months if the above is realized? Put a potential price per share on the next 18 months. I dare you!
Comment by boazklinghorn on Jan 22, 2023 12:41pm
Hey Proph you know I am bored on a sunday morning so I would say to your points 1) I remmebr that the cholesteral market was also in the billions. I remeber you reminding us of that endlessly and CZO dropped the ball on that deal by not designing the study corretly. Gilles said that they should have gone with a loose formulation but he had it in his head to use a pill. Aparently nobody thought to ...more  
Comment by prophetoffactz on Jan 22, 2023 1:34pm
boazklinghorn, "1) I remmebr that the cholesteral market was also in the billions. I remeber you reminding us of that endlessly..." Serious question, boazklinghorn. If you remember that why are you on the record just over one year ago on November 23, 2021 stating Gilles said it was a $400 million opportunity? You were right there. If you remember me repeatedly reminding you that the ...more  
Comment by prophetoffactz on Jan 22, 2023 1:54pm
"This was called a "bump in the road" instead of a major screw up" Was the beta glucan clinical trial a "bump in the road" as Gilles called it? Since the beta glucan cliical trial results: CZO down only 6.8%. TSX-Venture down a whopping ~37.2%.  S&P Biotech ETF down a whopping ~28.7%. CZO has dramatically outperformed the above indices and with its ...more  
Comment by prophetoffactz on Jan 22, 2023 2:07pm
"4) IF they get a deal of somekind with any reputable drink co this could do big things for the SP." The recent CoQ10 bioavailability results are so profound that CZO is now looking to sign a life sciences company first. People's health may may be at stake:  "Diseases such as neurodegenerative diseases, fibromyalgia, diabetes, cancer, mitochondrial diseases, muscular ...more  
Comment by boazklinghorn on Jan 22, 2023 4:50pm
It would not be mutually excflusive to get the drink done, fast easy and more importantly cash money and finally a real commercial deal done. If they can work out some partnership to investigate potential theraputics as well all the better.