Post by
tigerpro on Sep 28, 2023 1:48pm
Ceapro will go bankrupt in the end?
1. Ceapro's Main business is very unstable. Almost single product fo a single big client (JNJ). It seems the big client is changing their products. If JNJ changed products and does not use Ceapro anymore in the future, Ceapro can not survive. The whole picture will be changed totally.
2. Piplines: why so many people still beleive in a management team who never succeed in any pipline during the past 10 years. 10 yeas is enough.
Enough is enough. The management team even does not believe in their words by themselves, they never buy stocks by themselves, whatever the stock price is (because it may go to zero at last). Why keep trying pipelines? The pieplines can give shareholders hope and keep management team's job and salaries. Buying time, the slower the better. Nobody wants to see the final result of any pipeline. Please stop dreaming, and be rational, this is the key to be a successful investor.
3. The unstable main business is burning cash, the piplines are burning cash too. To keep their job, the mangement team plan to take risk and do acquisition. This is the last and risky solution. The risk is huge, and the final result is very bad in most case. Pls remember, the mangement does not hold much stocks, and they never buy the stocks. They care their job much more than the stock price and shareholder value. If you keep dreaming, you may lose 100% of your investment from this risky company.
In short term, the loss will be huge this year. In the long term, the risk is even more bigger. This year may be the best year compared with the following several years. If the business trend continues, going bankrupt is possible in the long run. Any rational discussion and suggestions?
Comment by
tigerpro on Sep 28, 2023 2:51pm
Big lessons from Ceapro: 1. The integrity of management team is very important. Don't make a friend with a person who keeps lying for 10 years. He does't deserve any trust, just a selfish actor. 2. Don't believe a management team without insider buying. No insider buying, this can tell everything about the future of the company.
Comment by
tigerpro on Sep 28, 2023 3:17pm
The Q1 is bad, the CEO said the big client was re-ordering. The Q2 is even wose, then I realized the management was lying agian as usual. Also, I realized JNJ may be changing its old product lines. This is the inevitable risk, sooner or later.
Comment by
tigerpro on Sep 28, 2023 3:26pm
If you do some research on JNJ's Neutrogena, you will find it has already changed some ingredients. I just found this recently. I was very angry... Previously, i did not know why the stock price kept dropping, it thought it was just market sentiment ......
Comment by
Ciao on Sep 28, 2023 3:35pm
Was that because of the benzene contamination? https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-consumer-inc-issues-voluntary-recall-of-specific-neutrogena-and-aveeno-aerosol-sunscreen-products-due-to-the-presence-of-benzene Kindly provide the basis / links for your thoughts that JNJ is moving away from using CEAPRO's ingredients in their product line.
Comment by
tigerpro on Sep 28, 2023 6:38pm
I don't think Ceapro is related with JNJ's product line of sunscreen. Previously, Ceapro's product was used in JNJ's Netrogena Rapid Wrinkles Repair products.
Comment by
prophetoffactz on Sep 28, 2023 3:37pm
"If you do some research on JNJ's Neutrogena, you will find it has already changed some ingredients." Tell us what CZO ingredient(s) are included in Neutrogena and show us where there is any mention this ingredient has been removed.
Comment by
boazklinghorn on Sep 28, 2023 4:18pm
Its a sad commentary when one new guy can pop up and sling a bit of FUD around and you have to take him seriously. We have a CEO that is a habitual liar who everyone agrees cant be trusted, and we have a big hole in the topline. Given that we only have one customer that is a recipe for concern.