Ceapro Inc V.CZO

This is nuts

[boazklinghorn]

Everyday we wait for Q3 I am more convinced it is going to be bad, but the really crazy thing is that any number is possible. We could get anything from  worst case sub one million in revenue to maybe 4 million. This is Gilles work, along with the shareholders who repeatedly supported his terrible leadership. So here we sit waiting for a number that could be a truly existential threat to the company as a going concern one year after record ( Though still pitiful 19 million) revenue. All because Gilles during his 10 plus years as CEO was too lazy and incompetent to diversify sales to even one other product or sales channel.

[prophetoffactz]

"Everyday we wait for Q3 I am more convinced it is going to be bad..." Gilles said they had $10 million cash. That would be down meaningfully from last quarter's $11.3 million. Gilles said 2023 will be challenging in last months presentation. There was no sign of reordering commencing from their major client. It looks like CZO cut back on social media spending to pinch pennies.

[dog4money]

where can I find the "Last Month's Presentarion" thanks 

[boazklinghorn]

We can be sure Gilles was lying about the 10 million. He will be rounding up and actual cash will be less . 9 point something. So we are looking at a loss in the 2 million range with 1.5 to 1.7 cash burn. This would imply revenue under 2 MM again  and stock price in the low 20s / high teens. And we have 6 months until the next opportunity to do something. Maybe the morons in the Gilles fan

[prophetoffactz]

Gilles outlined a ~$7 million capital spending program financed by cash. Multiple pipeline assets are beng invested in from PGX scale-up, to the avenanthramide pill trial, to the avenanthramide mallting technology, to the fibrosis drug, to the wound healing research, to the powder beta glucan. A deficit should not be a total suprise. CZO is aggressively advancing its pipeline to key valuation

[boazklinghorn]

Did he also outline a 50% drop in revenue ? I cant recall. 

[prophetoffactz]

It's generally known J&J was 50% of revenue and revenue coming back is subject to reordering recommencing.  Assuming currency adjusted revenue of $20 million last year with $5.3 million in revenue year-to-date CZO could have an average of $2.35 million in revenue in each of Q3 and Q4 without the return of Aveeno and Neutrogena. Avenanthramide is CZO's most profitable product so

[boazklinghorn]

I believe he said he expected "normal" order flow to resume in 3Q. So is he a liar? Again. We will soon see.

[Ciao]

How does one define normal? That's not a number. Just as Gilles took credit for the record volumes in 2022 which he attributed to his strategic partnership with Symrise on a renewal contract, we later learn that most of it was due to a stocking campaign and COVID due to consumers washing hands more frequently; what he says has no credibility or substance.

[boazklinghorn]

Ya if we assume "normal " is 3-4 MM revenue/ quarter then the myth of revenue growth is dead. 

[prophetoffactz]

CZO has had multi-year revenue declines since 2009 before. The long-term trend has been double digit revenue growth despite temporary declines. Businesses seldomly grow in a straight line for over a decade. Gilles said next year he expects a return to historical trends after the adjustment this year. CZO also has the imminent launch of the oat beta glucan powder with Symrise, and it is working on

[boazklinghorn]

"The 10X PGX scale-up also allows CZO to produce commercial-scale PGX for the first time." And it only took 13 years well done 

[boazklinghorn]

Just to be clear it hasnt happened yet so 13 years might be optimistic. 

[prophetoffactz]

All of humanity hasn't been able to accomplish it in all of human history. Gilles is the next step in human evolution. They should patent that man's genes.  Mr. Regnier added, “This is an exciting time in the Company’s history with the potential to generate growing value in the near and long term. I look forward to completing the development of technologies such as PGX, that

[boazklinghorn]

"They should patent that man's genes."  He is a gorgeous creature I will grant you that. #fatfrenchcombover

[Ciao]

Who is trying to take credit for Dr. Temelli's PGX discovery?   By now, any other CEO would have been able to monetize PGX with license agreements for different applications,milestone payments, or royalties by partnering with commercial interests. Years of interested parties, advanced discussions and more recently serious discussions have proven so far to be lip service. 

[prophetoffactz]

Ciao: "Results matter, not words". Gilles is the only one with results. All Ciao has is words. Gilles needed a technology to create a purified oat beta glucan for the oat beta glucan pill trial. He in-licensed PGX. His efforts led to the discovery of CZO's masterpiece PGX-YBG. It's not clear anyone else would have discovered PGX-YBG on their path. PGX-YBG/CoQ10 blows away

[Ciao]

True growth would have been captured by volume of product sold. You can "hide" real growth on this simple business with a few SKU's when volume of product is not sold and rev depends on pricing and FX effects. For a small cap company where the CEO brags about 10% growth using only revenues is pretty sad.  They have indirect sales to a premier company, J&J and sat on the