Ceapro Inc V.CZO

Cash burn at AEZS

[Ciao]

AEZS has enough cash til 2025.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aeterna-zentaris-shelves-early-stage-175325915.html

Merged or not, they will continue the cycle of burning cash,  issuing shares, share rollbacks = shareholder value destruction

As noted in the NR, after CZO shareholders receive 1 new share for about 11, they will rollback shares again (just after the 1 for 25 last year) 1 for every 3 or 4 to maintain NASDAQ min share price requirements , higher than min. as they anticipate the share price falling as it has historically. Have a look at the long term AEZS share price.

Gagnon has said a few times that CZO has enough cash to execute on its plan. If this has changed, then it's about time he got off his .... and started making licensing deals or commercial JV to fund the pipeline. It should be so hard given we've had interested parties, been involved in advanced discussions and more recently serious discussions. 

No CZO shareholders would be interested investors in a disaster like AEZS, we definitely don't want to dilute our interest in PGX, a disruptive delivery system. Heck, AV phase 1/2a will be done in 9 months and positive results would garner interest from the pharma industry. Let's not forget we are in a transformational year / inflection point where shareholders have waited years and years for. h

In the sidelines we have Y-BG which could have all kinds of applications beyond an inhalable therapeutic. Remember, inflammation is inflammation is inflammation. $175M, heck Avalyn just raised $175M USD 2 months ago for its inhalable treatment. Gagnon needs to get off his ...from his living room couch and make those deals for a $500K CEO. He needs to venture outside academia and make some financing or commercial deals. 

Merging with AEZS is self serving. Shareholders see this, hopefully OATS does as well.

[lscfa]

US license fees were about $750k/qtr until paused. Assume Europe will be the same. Then double it for child mrkt => $12M/yr revenues       License fees Develop services Royalties Supply chain Total Revenue    

[lscfa]

Maybe closer to $24M/yr revenue.  Novo originally agreed to a 15% royalty but is was reduced to 7.5% when they accelerated an upfront payment. Also, the European license is for royalties in the 10% to 20% range.

[prophetoffactz]

Pediatric enrollment for AEZS's diagnostic test clinical trial is expected by the end of the year according to a filing last month. The end of the year is basically here. The results from a diagnostic test may not take that long to compile. That could be the basis for signing a new North American licensing deal for the test. Gilles should have a very good idea how negotiations with potential

[lscfa]

What's the source of $145 million? I don't see it. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/17/1295621/0/en/Aeterna-Zentaris-Enters-into-Licensing-and-Assignment-Agreement-with-Strongbridge-for-Macrilen-macimorelin-in-the-U-S-and-Canada.html

[prophetoffactz]

"What's the source of $145 million? I don't see it." Here's the link: Four years and $145M+ later, Novo Nordisk hands back the rights to hormone growth deficiency test – Endpoints News (endpts.com) August 29, 2022 12:35 PM EDTUpdated September 2, 08:31 AM R&D Four years and $145M+ later, Novo Nordisk hands back the rights to hormone growth deficiency test Nicole

[lscfa]

Novo got played.... Executives at Strongbridge Biopharma must watch a lot of TV programmes about home improvement, because they have just pulled off the biotech equivalent of a real estate flip – selling Macrilen to Novo Nordisk for $182m up front just 10 months after licensing the product from Aeterna Zentaris for $24m. https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals/flipping-win

[prophetoffactz]

The growth hormone deficiency test was forecasted to reach US$64 million in revenue in 2024. That is probably with pediatric approval which is now could happen in 2024. The North American licensing deal could be interesting.  "a project forecast to reach $64m in sales in 2024, according to EvaluatePharma's consensus of sellside analysts."

[boazklinghorn]

We all know how relaible Sell side analysts are oh and not for sale either. THe market on the other has zero faith that this company will ever turn a profit. I have honestly never seen a company valued at 30% of its cash value. THe Board of ACZE or whatever should tell the market they are shutting down operations and returning cash to shareholders. It would be an immediate 3 bagger for the current

[prophetoffactz]

boazklinghorn, "I have honestly never seen a company valued at 30% of its cash value."  AEZS has said it has enough cash into 2025: "- Ended the quarter with $38.8 million in cash, expected to fund operations and advancement of priority pipeline programs into 2025" news release That's not much time before potential bankruptcy... Gilles is on the Board of Directors

[PBaelishh]

"I have honestly never seen a company valued at 30% of its cash value." Yeah, I'm gobsmacked... a real head-scratcher.  It just goes to show you that the market knows: (1) The cash is not extractable (by shareholders) and, (2) Said cash will cannot be used to create value going forward. I thought Ceapro was the pos but Gagnon has managed to 'find' an even bigger pos to

[prophetoffactz]

"isn't it strange how AEZS' share price went up by 50% in the weeks leading-up to the announcement?" The S&P Biotech ETF is up 33.7% since October 27 and AEZS should have a higher beta as a microcap. Inflation and interest rates are easing. That's good for biotech. Gilles may have scooped up potentially >$150 million in value at the bottom of the historic biotech

[Tencents]

And why did aeterna not sell it to someone for 100 plus M $

[prophetoffactz]

If AEZS's assets are really worth >$150 million and this is a merger of equals CZO is also being valued at >$150 million. Together it could be a >$300 million deal in perceived value. Together with a footprint in Europe and North America they could enter stronger PGX deals, etc., further increasing value and pursue opportunities on their own. The yeast beta glucan market is worth $1

[lscfa]

Should have said enough cash until the end of 2025. Burn rate is about $4M/qtr.            Cash flow Net R&D Dec 23     Sep 23 (3,384) 2,751 June 23

[prophetoffactz]

"Should have said enough cash until the end of 2025. Burn rate is about $4M/qtr." Makes you wonder what AEZS's plans are to ramp up spending on their early-stage speculative pipeline programs. How wild are they going to get speculating before they run out of money. They need to put forth a clear plan for what assets they plan to spend on so that the market has a clear understanding