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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Ceapro Inc V.CZO

Ceapro Inc. is a Canada-based biotechnology company. The Company is involved in the development of extraction technology and the application of this technology to the production of extracts and active ingredients from oats and other renewable plant resources. Its primary business activities relate to the development and commercialization of natural products for personal care, cosmetic, human... see more

TSXV:CZO - Post Discussion

Ceapro Inc > Net present value
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Post by prophetoffactz on Jan 07, 2024 6:04pm

Net present value

I went to try and find where Gilles talked about the net present value of the potential PGX immune booster facility to try and nail down what was said. This is from almost three years ago. He said $100 million net present value using a 20% discount rate assumed 3% market share in this presentation @ 21:50: Ceapro (CRPOF) CEO Gilles Gagnon – Presentation from NobleCon17 (yo utube.com)

I
f the 10X scale-up works out and the animal trial and they're convinced they have the gold standard perhaps a plant configured for greater than 3% market share would be constructed.

A news release around the time of the video talked about Germany being the ideal spot for a location:

"...it became clear that location of the first large scale PGX unit should be close to the best source of raw material which was found in Germany where the Company also acquired pieces of equipment suitable for the assembling of such unit." April 22, 2021 news release 

Gilles said in his October presentation they were collaboaating with Kerry and Leiber. Leiber is in Germany and now with the proposed AEZS merger AEZS also has a German footprint. Maybe CZO can have a German facility for the European market and Canadian facility for the North American market. 
Comment by lscfa on Jan 07, 2024 10:06pm
Not buying the $100 million NPV.  If the BGY mkt is $1 billion/yr, a 3% share = $30 million/yr.  But that is revenue. Cash flow would be much smaller.         PV @ 20% 0 (40,000,000) (40,000,000) 1 30,000 ...more  
Comment by prophetoffactz on Jan 07, 2024 10:33pm
You need to see more specifics. You are using billion dollar market absolutely when it could be an approximation. Maybe it is a $1.15 billion market or something. The market number could be in US dollars when the $100 million net present value could be in Canadian dollars. You assume no inflation over 15 years for the revenue. Perhaps CZO believes it could get a premium for its gold standard ...more  
Comment by lscfa on Mar 02, 2024 7:07pm
still not buying the $100M NPV  
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