Ceapro Inc V.CZO

AEZS's Diagnostic Test:

[prophetoffactz]

AEZS received US$24 million upfront from Strongbridge, and was to receive US$5 million for pediatric approval. Pediatric approval could happen this year. Adding an assumed ~US$10 million for the pediatric clinical trial costs that have now been incurred and US$14 million in potentially achievable near term milestones linked to annual net sales achieving US$50 million as below that is a total of potentially US$53 million in upfront and near-term payments. That's about C$71 million.

In addition AEZS was to receive 15%-18% royalties and 5% upon patent expiration. This could be monitized for a significant upfront payment for CZO's growth plan.

With approval for the pediatric market the clinical trial and regulatory risk as well as time to market have also been absorbed. AEZS can charge money for this. The deal with Strongbridge was six years ago. Significant growth in the growth hormone deficiency market also appears to have occurred and is forecast into the future. Lumos Pharma is developing "LUM-201 has the potential to increase treatment rates and treatment adherence among PEM-positive pediatric patients due to the more favorable oral administration route." https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/growth-hormone-secretagogue-receptor-type-1-drugs-in-development-analysis/

AEZS also has C$113 million in tax loss carryforwards and other pipeline assets that could be licensed as they reach human testing.

• US$4,000,000 on achieving US$25,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$10,000,000 on achieving US$50,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$20,000,000 on achieving US$100,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$40,000,000 on achieving US$200,000,000 annual net sales, and
• US$100,000,000 on achieving US$500,000,000 annual net sales.

 

• A wholly-owned subsidiary of Strongbridge Biopharma plc has snapped up the North American rights to Aeterna Zentaris Inc.‘s lead product, Macrilen. 
• Aeterna Zentaris will get a much needed $24 million upfront, and royalties for the patent life of the drug, at a rate of 15% for sales up to $75 million and 18% above $75 million. After patent expiry, royalties will drop to 5%.
• Strongbridge will also pay milestone payments of up to $179 million on sales targets and on a pediatric U.S. approval, and will fund 70% of pediatric development costs.
• Post-review, Aeterna Zentaris strikes commercialization deal | BioPharma Dive

[Tencents]

Hopefully there will NR on this for the merger approval' As the partner will probably be a smaller company like Pharmanovie in Europe I don't expect they can afford the trials remboursement novi seems to indicate sales levels to be low end of range so 50 M is probably not acieceable 3 to 5 more likely  in addition a small marketing company would take a number of years to get to this

[prophetoffactz]

This merger could be seen as a financing without warrants to fuel CZO's next phase of growth. AEZS's ~C$50 million cash, potential upfront and near-term payments for the diagnostic(Strongbridge was to pay C$71 million in upfront and near term payments as below plus royalties), C$113 million in tax loss carryfowards could provide VERY meaningful capital as PGX reaches potential commercial

[Tencents]

We dont need Carolyn to say she believes there is sufficient capital to support growth etc we need her to say thereis 50 m cash today there is 48 m losses to finance 23/24/25 ( we know that)  there is x m upfront for the diagnostic in 202x or x m to pay to a partner to market it there is x m potentiel sales from PGx upgrade in 202x/202y/202z etc' there is needed for x m capital for that