Ceapro Inc V.CZO

AEZS's diagnostic

[prophetoffactz]

AEZS's diagnostic test deal with Strongbridge was signed 6 years ago last month. Using US CPI to adjust for inflation the US$24 million upfront AEZS received would now be equal to US$29.39 million or C$39.7 million adjusted for inflation. That's just the upfront payment. AEZS was also to receive US$5 million upon approval for the pediatric market and to pay to support the pediatric clinical trial. The peiatric trial was to be fully enrolled in December 2023. There were also significant potential milestone payments linked to sales. What AEZS will receive for a new North American diagnostic deal remains to be seen as pediatric approval potentially looms this year; but Gilles is in a position to know the terms of the deals being talked about as a mamber of AEZS's Board of Directors.

prophetoffactz wrote:Tencents says: It was easy for Stonebridge to agree C71m knowing the US24 m upfront would never be paid...

 
"Under the terms of the license and assignment agreement, Strongbridge will make an upfront payment of $24 million to Aeterna Zentaris within five days of the effective date of the agreement." Strongbridge news release 

That's C$32 million alone upfront.

When its licensed this time it could also be with FDA approval for the key childhood market and with the pediatric trial costs, risks, and time to approval for the key childhood market in the past. Strongbridge licensed the test 3-4 years before expected pediatric approval. There was to be a US$5 million payment upon pediatric approval. That would be C$38.65 million.  

There was to be another US$15 million in payments tied to achieving annual sales of US$25 to US$50 million. Then there are the royalties that could be monitized.

• US$4,000,000 on achieving US$25,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$10,000,000 on achieving US$50,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$20,000,000 on achieving US$100,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$40,000,000 on achieving US$200,000,000 annual net sales, and
• US$100,000,000 on achieving US$500,000,000 annual net sales.

[prophetoffactz]

H.C. Wainwright's has also issued a US$15 target price for AEZS likely significantly driven by the diagnostic test. That works out to about C$100 million in market cap. In July AEZS said in a news release: "...based upon our active outreach and discussions, we expect to secure an alternate development and commercialization partner for Macrilen® for the U.S. and Canada."