Post by
prophetoffactz on Feb 21, 2024 9:54am
A big splash in the big pool, NASDAQ...
People mistake the exchange ratio for the value of the company. It only established the relative value of the two companies for purposes of the merger. Each company's shareholders are to control half the new company. What's the value of the new company? Everyone will have to make up their own mind but H.C. Wainwright had a C$100 million market cap target for AEZS. As a merger of equals that could put a target price for CZO's shares at $1.25? Is that reasonable? It would seem supported by the previous Novo Nordisk and Strongbridge deals. What is HC. Wainwright was half right? Gilles is on the inside of AEZS so he should know what he's getting into as a deal is expected and the pediatric trial was to be fully enrolled by the end of 2023. The diagnostic test is de-risked pending the pediatric data and approval. It is already approved for adults and there is previous data for children. Then there's commercial risk; but the market is established and who wants to subject a kid to unnecessary needle-sticks, side-effects, and the risk of over-diagnosis. It seems like it will be a welcomed test vs. the competion and Gilles has been able to see the benefits in commercial use for the adult market.
AEZS's pediatric diagnostic trial was to be fully enrolled at the end of last year. It takes 1-4 months for a partient for each patient is my understanding so a final data read-out from the trial could happen at any time. This could set the conditions for the anticipated licensing deal ahead of expected approval.
Around the time of the vote for the merger the 5X PGX scale-up is expected to be commissioned. Given Natex believed they had 50% of the equipment and infrastructure in place for the 10X scale-up facility in November 2023 they could have ~65% of the equipment and infrastructure in place at the time of the vote assuming simple extrapolation. The 100L PGX facility allows small-scale commercial production and puts PGX at the decision point for mass industrialization - a key point of decision for partnering. The merger would provide CZO the financial strength to enter strong partnerships.