Post by
68Charger1 on Aug 24, 2023 6:57pm
Time for grand comparisons yet?
We are in a tantalizing sweet spot as the market’s attention turns to us – for at least a moment or two. And new investors will find they have to pay up for FDR shares.
What particular type of sweet spot? We seem to be between “supply deliveries” of stock. Safe to say, whatever overhang still remained as of last night from the March PP is either in stronger hands today or has been taken off the market, at least for now. And if a forced exercise of the 7 million $0.35 warrants is coming, it has yet to be activated.
Note that if riding for free is the typical goal of those warrant holders, that means only 3 or 4 million shares need hit the market at current prices. If expectations have risen as fast as the trading volume, which I suspect they have, that new supply could be quickly overrun if and when it arrives.
Now for the grand comparison. I’m not familiar with other dramatic gold discovery stories, but I was fortunate enough to get in on Great Bear fairly early. Not on the ground floor, I’m sorry to say, or even the third floor. But in a “35-storey” deposit, there’s plenty of profit to go around.
How does FDR compare to GBR? There’s enough discussion material in that topic to fill a number of Bull Board posts. High level, the overall pattern is close enough I couldn’t resist buying FDR in June.
What points of similarity come to mind? A very tight share structure, with heavy insider ownership. Experienced and well-connected backers, with a proven ability to find gold. A property near other producing mines, inside a historic gold district. A mining-friendly jurisdiction. Accessibility to the property at very low cost. Low drilling cost too. Previous exploration work giving hints of gold. The potential for a deposit so big it could stretch for kilometers across the property. And a cost-conscious CEO focused on making the whole orchestra work together.
About the only big apparent difference is in the personality of our CEO. I look forward to speaking with Mr. Padget in person at some point if he keeps doing public appearances. I was able to talk one-on-one with Chris Taylor at such conferences a number of times as Great Bear gradually rose to superstar level. Mr. Taylor never lost his modesty as his success multiplied, and I don’t suspect Mr. Padget will change either.
Our CEO seems more like an introverted tech startup innovator, whereas Chris Taylor was a born salesman. He always had a twinkle in his eye as he told the story. If he exaggerated a little, it was hardly to a fault… because anyone who bought and held to the end made money. Even those who bought just before the Kinross takeover was announced made a minimum of 35-50%.
As to the maximum that was possible… for anyone unfamiliar with the story, GBR was around $0.50 before its first big drill result in August 2018. Kinross bought it for $29 in Dec 2021, and along the way in 2020, we GBR shareholders also got a royalty spin-off ultimately worth something like an extra $4 or $5 per GBR share held (it was bought out too).
Our FDR doesn’t even need that kind of success for its shareholders to make a very tidy profit from these levels. But it is surely the possible massive upside that really ignites dreams and drives share prices for spec stocks like this one. And, as we’ve seen, our drill results come out much faster than GBR’s ever did.
Comment by
Daugaard on Aug 25, 2023 5:47am
Great writting you have on this company, thanks a lot.
Comment by
arctan on Aug 26, 2023 7:21am
Add my name to your followers and commenters. In case you're not aware yet, since the big drill hit Thursday morning, folks have been sharing and cross-posting your recent comments on FDR to the stock's active discussion board on the CEO.ca website. Great stuff!