Post by
68Charger1 on Feb 09, 2024 8:00pm
FDR and The Chart of Destiny
Maybe that title was a little cheesy - and derivative. But with our stock price sagging, I figured a few of you might want to take laughs anywhere you can get them.
Don’t anyone berate themselves for buying in at $1.75 or $1.50. If this were an easy game, everyone would get rich at it. The perfect is the enemy of the good on the stock market too.
And you aggressive buyers provided the very liquidity that ultimately helps your own long position too. Otherwise, our price swings might be so wild and illiquid as to dissuade some new entrants. Remember, we want all the sensible new buyers we can attract.
Finally on that topic, before I get to our chart, recall what Buffett said about the stock you picked dropping shortly after you buy it. Rejoice! If it was a good deal at the price you paid, now you can buy more on sale. And we can all agree Buffett is no self-deluding loser.
I was thinking yesterday about commenting on our 8-month daily chart. And Daugaard today already implied the first important observation, which bears repeating: volume seems to dry up just before each stairstep higher. As our volume has been doing.
My point rests on a different indicator. One that, like the volume trends, may be universal to all stocks. The slope of the retracements seems to vary inversely with the size of the next upward surge. Or, put differently, a more steeply angled decline precedes a more modest new high. And vice-versa.
If true for FDR, we are getting ready for a move to at least $2.25 or so. Soon. The age of this retracement is already the longest we’ve faced. Though that may be simply a factor of the increasing dimensions of our chart patterns. Either way, probably a good sign.
Charting really is a magical science. Part careful mathematical pattern study, part self-fulfilling prophecy, part wholistic visual summation of all known and inside information on a stock. If the next drill results release (~Feb 15th?) doesn’t ignite an upward move, the collision of our current price-drift trajectory with the uptrend should occur somewhere around $1.25.
Like battling egg-ends at Easter, which one of those two shells do you realistically think will crack? On a stock like ours, the smart money is on the long-term uptrend to remain intact.
Meantime, JuniorResourceInvesting has published his excellent interview with Colin Padget. I was already planning an update to the assumptions of my resource model with insights gleaned from the last few days. But Padget enumerated some additional critical ones.
His interview ought to be watched carefully by everyone serious about owning FDR. Padget’s skills – and modesty – are on full display, as usual. In case anyone was nursing any doubts lately.
Have a good weekend, fellow FDRers.