Post by
68Charger1 on Feb 10, 2024 3:28pm
FDR and the news-timing bingo card
A recurring problem for me in writing pieces for fast release is mis-statements in my argument I notice only after posting. So before I get to the bingo card analogy, let me correct my latest error.
Yesterday I said “overly-aggressive” FDR buyers shouldn’t regret their timing imperfections, because the liquidity their buys add prevents wild swing of our stock price. While their buys still benefit of all FDR shareholders, it is mainly for the opposite reason: the hyper-aggressive upswings in the stock price are what act as a beacon drawing in more new buyers. Which is… still to *every* long’s benefit. Ultimately.
Now to the news release timing issue. In response to my last piece, NextLegUp has asked why FDR doesn’t try more diligently to maximize the impact of its good news by timing releases earlier in the week. On one level, this is an entirely valid and straightforward approach for an explorer. Why waste any possible momentum, ever? Who knows what other factors might in future conspire to slow our share price appreciation? Make hay while the sun shines.
But as we all know, ours is no ordinary company. Other firms must milk every possible drop of potential from news, because it might be 13 - or 30 - weeks until the next opportunity. We have averaged an assay report every *two* weeks since drilling started.
And we’re still accelerating. There could easily be three results releases in February... and every month thereafter. We have the luxury of playing a different kind of game. And perhaps that is what our management is up to.
I have not been keeping careful track, but I suspect we have almost filled our “bingo card” with all the various types of releases. We’ve done one nearly every day of the week. We’ve done at least one intra-day news release. We haven’t yet done a trading halt prior to a release – maybe we’re saving that for the first big Buese hit. Or maybe sooner, as we first drill the delicious sounding Donut and Eclaire sub-zones at Upper Antino. What's left? An after-hours release?
By covering the whole bingo card, management gets closer to the ideal situation: longs and would-be-longs never having the first clue when the next news might drop. This sort of beneficial uncertainty, combined with the kind of comments from Padget in his JRI interview regarding pulling “financing” gold from the tailings, are one of the key drivers drawing in institutional money.
If it becomes obvious FDR need never do another financing, suddenly everyone must accept we are a stock like no other. And then buy what is offered on the order book, at whatever higher prices it is offered.
Now, as NextLeg has mentioned, bad news is a different animal. And it will be instructive to see on what day of the week management releases that kind of update. Practically speaking, I suppose some merely disappointing FDR news could be seen as “bad”, but that would be because we have become one very spoiled group of shareholders.
I guess it behooves commenters like me to reign in my endless enthusiasm, to prepare for such a bad day. But I probably won’t.