Post by
68Charger1 on Feb 29, 2024 2:35pm
FDR news prompts model update – plus upsized dreams?
With perfect timing for Toronto’s MIF / PDAC week, which starts tomorrow, our crack team served up some more powerful assays this morning. Third time *this month*, if anyone’s counting.
I said last Friday I’d be happy to update my model before the conferences, should new data warrant it. It does, but only barely. I’ve got a low threshold for getting prompted to post new commentaries, however, so here goes.
Strictly applied, the new data only boosts my target price $0.05. Moving Donut back into the same category of grade as Froyo only increases Donut’s projected ounces by 20%. But if we all regarded FDR with only an accountant’s eye, we wouldn’t be shareholders in this play. (No disrespect intended to accountants – without them commerce wouldn’t function at all, plus how would so many of us crazy dreamer types ever keep proper track of our taxes?)
In a more wholistic appreciation, by contrast, today’s results are massive. Because they lead to some alluring questions.
Are Froyo and Donut connected? Do they combine to make a low-grade bulk-tonnage deposit shot through with lots of high grade?
And what does that suggest for Buese? Will it have some high grade too? How much? It’s already got a big footprint, right?
If we double or triple the estimate of Upper Antino’s ounces, does that likewise move up the reasonable estimates for each other zone? By the same proportions?
Finally, on a more operational level, if we’ve now completed a month with three good assay releases, should we expect three per month from now on?
That last question is perhaps the most aggressive one in the list, but it adds fire and urgency to the rest. Urgent to those not fully positioned yet, that is. The mysteries of the Upper Antino zone may soon be revealed to all.
Maybe FDR cannot keep up this pace of news-flow, but it’s now proven it can at least achieve it. Fence-sitters have been put on notice. And Toronto conference-goers will have a lot to talk about.
Because plugging some higher zone totals into my model, as suggested by those tantalizing questions above, might easily push us to 15 or even 20 million oz. Meaning a share price of somewhere north of Cdn$15.
Can you feel the breakout coming? I sure can.