Post by
68Charger1 on Aug 14, 2024 5:10pm
FDR and the Great (?) August ’24 Breakout
I can’t control how the market runs. Few can. But even were I able to do so, I couldn’t concoct a better script in support of my predictive 3rd-derivative output hypothesis than today’s events.
FDR’s session started with moderate-to-strong posting volume (and poster variety) on our CEO.ca channel. There was also very fast uptake on my earlier Stockhouse commentary, which I uploaded just as the market opened this morning. I think 30 or 40 views within 25 minutes or so. To me, variety and speed of content consumption represent a 3rd-derivative of share price.
But by the end of the trading day, we saw the biggest ever (I think) total CEO.ca traffic volume (2nd derivative), and variety of participants, for FDR. Eric Coffin even weighed in at a couple of key moments, generously sharing some valuable insights, as usual.
And my 6-hour old Stockhouse commentary had 95 views… all during market hours! A new personal record for sure. I always assume people glue themselves to the trading screen like I do on days such as today, taking no time to read longer articles, but I am probably an extreme even among Founders shareholders. *Someone* was taking time out to read my words.
Just as I would have hoped, by mid-session we saw the first big market order. Then another. Soon it became likely our share volume (the 1st-derivative of FDR’s share price in my predictive model) would trend higher relative to the recent days.
Mix big market orders together with a clearly rising volume trend - then factor in little apparent psychological resistance at the $3.00 level - and what do you get? A new all-time-high stock price for FDR… above $3.00! The new record print happening with enough authority that we quickly revisited it again for the close of the day.
We didn’t exactly go through $3.00 like a hot knife through butter, but I’ll take it. In fact, it is probably the best of all possible worlds. For, who really wants to explode higher in the typical parabolic move, only to crash back down the next day? Slow and steady wins the race to a big market cap and lucrative buyout.
To summarize, I think the process operates as follows:
1. An expanding group of posters leads to greater variety, consumed more quickly by everyone,
2. Which leads to greater total volume of posts,
3. Driving volume of trading higher,
4. After which share price is drawn higher (presumably then to be confirmed by newsflow).
And probably not lost on observers was how spot gold languished throughout the session – clearly not a negative influence on FDR today.
What more is there to say?
Bring on the next opening bell. Especially now that, as Mr. Coffin so nicely put it, “margin kicks in”. Margin only for the most aggressive FDR buyers, that is… which seems to describe most of them today.