Some comments on the recent Q1 2023 reuslts...
FLYHT has a hill to climb now to make a profit in 2023. Revenue of $4,757,230 in Q1, if it remained flat, would total just $19M against last year's $24M.
I had posted the comments below back on April 21 when estimating that FLYHT would need revenue of perhaps $29M to be profitable in 2023. These items remain attainable and are closer to realization or are actively happening.
"Wildcards include: the commencement of Edge and Edge+ hardware sales (pending acquisition of the necessary STCs); the subsequent commencement of revenue from the partnership with MBS; sales of weather sensors for meteorological organizations like NOAA, E.C.C.C. and U.K. Met.; AFIRS SatCOM deliveries - notably for the ARJ-21 and C919, and for Frontier Airlines; new SaaS revenue from FLYHT's latest Actionable Intelligence software; new SaaS revenue and hardware sales related to partner Swoop and real-time APU management; revenue from the service and hardware partnership with SITA.
The full return to pre-COVID flight hours for the increase in SaaS and weather data sales they would bring could almost be viewed as new, at least additional, revenue when comparing 2023 to 2022. A lot hinges on the full recovery of AirAsia specifically, but this seems to be well underway. International flights in parts of the world are still lagging, though."
From the Q1 report...
"AFIRS 228 solution is a leading Iridium satcom solution with a proven track record and an installed
base of over 4,000 aircraft"
"Weather is fast becoming another driver of growth for FLYHT"
"This quarter Transport Canada awarded FLYHT a Supplemental Type Certificate (“STC”) to install the AFIRS 228 on the Boeing 737 MAX-8, one of the world’s most popular aircraft types, creating additional growth potential for FLYHT. Airlines can now request that their aircraft come off the factory line with Iridium satcom provisions, and our new STC allows for updates to those provisions to accommodate FLYHT’s AFIRS 228."
Questions voiced in the April 21 post remain. Some newer answers from the Q1 report are:
Enough cash on hand? "cash balance increased by $564,000 to $3.2 million"
Enough deliverable orders to replicate non-licensing 2022 revenue? "pipeline of potential business continues to increase and currently stands at the highest level in company history"
Are any new or additional expenses occurring? The sum of the big three expenses has risen by about 10%, with the biggest increase being for distribution (the expense with the closest relationship to sales). Admin is actually down. R&D, which includes certifications, is understandably up.
Still wondering about any expenses or payouts related to the passing of Bill Tempany which probably need to happen before the end of 2023.
Will we see revenue from licensing in 2023? I still can't imagine that we won't. "AFIRS 228 solution is a leading Iridium satcom solution with a proven track record and an installed base of over 4,000 aircraft" - most of this is licensed installs.
A sign of progress is the additional STC table in the Q1 report for the Edge. Once the STCs from Transport Canada are received, the applications for the FAA, EASA and CAAC become follow-on.
| STC Chart: AFIRS Edge | | |
| | | | | |
| TCCA | FAA | EASA | CAAC | |
| Canada | USA | EU | China | |
| P | | | | Airbus A319, A320, A321, NEO |
| I | | | | Boeing B737 -600, -700, -800 |
| I | | | | Boeing B737 MAX |
| | | | | |
| | | | | I - in progress |
| | | | | P - pending, final stages |
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Market cap for 38.8 million shares at today's share price of $0.93 sits at about $36 million. I would suggest that the company is worth considerably more that this at present. We may still see some shares being sold at these low levels for a while yet, but the volume won't be great, I expect.
1,034,700 shares traded publicly in the 92 days since the year opened. That's an average of 11,247 shares per day, roughly $11,000 worth per day or 0.03% of the present market cap. On eight of these days, no shares were traded. On four other days, less than 1,000 shares were traded.
If 11,247 shares were traded on average per day, about 38.79 million shares, on average, were
not traded, were held onto. What is that - for every 1 share traded, roughly 338 were held onto?