ReGen III Corp V.GIII

11.73$ price target on GIII

[AndreasG]

" The first plant is expected to generate 85 million CAD EBITDA per year. The second is twice as big, so I expect CAD 170 million EBITDA. I calculate with a 70 percent stake of Gen III in the first plant and with 80 percent in the second plant: 59.5 million CAD EBITDA (plant 1) and 136 million CAD EBITDA (plant 2) = 195.5 million CAD EBITDA per year from 2 plants. Using a factor of 6, I arrive at CAD 1.173 billion acquisition valuation divided by about 100 million shares = CAD 11.73 per share compared to the current price of CAD 0.80. This calculation is based on only 2(!) plants. Today, it was officially written for the first time that they are currently working on 3 plants. My target price is probably too low once again. "

Source : https://t.me/smallcapstockpickingcanada

For me this is a very solid long term investment.
I am very comfortable holding my shares another 3 or even 4 years , letting GIII management build and put in production at least 12 projects globally. Resulting in a share price that will be a multiple of the target set above.

Even at these prices , this is still a no brainer.

Andreas

[madmax90]

GIII's problem today has been the same problem for the last 3 years. its been an ongoing concern and yet still can't manage to raise the $100MM in funds they require to retrofit the initial refinery at bowden. yes we can say how wonderful a 50% ebitda margin company is, but this thing is still stuck on the launch pad with no gas in the tank.  Credit where credit is due, they have

[TrickyNicky]

You don't think a definitive agreement with a super major might offer better access to capital? pretty sure that's been the hold up. Elbow River offtake sounds a little different to US capital than Shell or BP offtake. If KPS just got engaged, they pushed off the AGM, we know they are close on a DA.. things are brewing.

[Marphine]

Those things take time. Project is getting de-risked with every step they take. The environment is getting close to ideal for ESG projects like GIII's. And I appreciate the fact that the float is still smaller than 100M shares. Take advantage of it... you won't be able to buy shares below 2$ anymore after the "financing secured" PR. Who knows what the first SM deal announcement

[madmax90]

I would argue that the ESG theme is either close to max or getting over the hump and heading lower. yes it is a lovely idea but for alot of fund managers it doesn't meet the required Rates of return. Aside on the ESG front, GIII's re-refining at 50% margins, the project is an aboslute no brainer, especially with 3rd party (Stantec) validation.   I was a holder for a long time

[lscfa]

With a super major taking all the production from the US refinery there will be no problem getting project debt financing and this could spill over to the Alberta refinery too.  

[TurtleDove]

I agree with this, however, we also have to keep in mind that this is the highest we have seen the SP go, we have insiders (board members) buying large volumes right now, and regardless of financing with BDC, once/if this deal is done with the SM then Gen will have their pick of finance options for these projects. It may be in Gens best interest to not to renew the BDC term sheet as they might be

[TurtleDove]

It's hard to believe that financing options can get better than from the EDC but my point is, is that there is lots going on that we are not privy to. 

[lscfa]

Plausible. Assuming the co. uses JV partners to fund the projects there is no further share dilution, only economic dilution through sharing with JV partner.   Alta + US ebitda 297.3 297.3 Co's JV share 50% 25% Co. project ebitda