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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Greenbriar Sustainable Living Inc V.GRB

Alternate Symbol(s):  GEBRF

Greenbriar Sustainable Living Inc. is a developer of sustainable entry-level housing and renewable energy projects. The Company’s primary business is the acquisition, management, development, and possible sale of real estate and renewable energy projects. It operates through three segments: real estate development in the United States (Real Estate), solar energy projects in Puerto Rico (Solar... see more

TSXV:GRB - Post Discussion

View:
Post by Finalrep on Jul 14, 2021 9:18pm

GRB fair value

Let’s look at this if someone was going to acquire GRB

 

Market cap 36.91M US

Outstanding shares 26.92M

OS X current market price of 1.37 = 36.88M US

 

36.91 + 36.88 = 73.79M US

 

Sage ~ 1.6M square feet in homes to build across 995 homes (1675 average)

 

Jeff said $130 per square foot in construction costs.

 

1.6M x $150 = 208M costs (project level financing)

 

Jeff also said $100 per square foot cost to buyers (GRB profit) for the land. Jeff bought that land for 1M so this is all profit and why he made his 101 post about “entitlement” being the biggest wealth creator.

 

1.6M square feet x 100 = 160M US

 

Let’s assume 50/50 split between captiva and grb so that’s 80M profit for GRB.

 

Jeff also said that construction profit is normally 15-20%.

 

Using 20% and taking 50% to represent captiva that equals 208M x .20/2 = 20M

 

20M additional profit for grb on top of the 80M profit.

 

But let’s be ultra conservative and say grb makes nothing off construction.

 

The profit 80M is still worth more than GRB if Jeff sold the entire company at current price 73.79M

 

Let’s take Alberta… previous press release indicates 12M cash flow after first set of projects completed. But let’s be ultra ultra conservative and not even include Alberta 

 

We are still left with Montalva for free since Sage is worth as much or more than GRB at current market price buy out.

 

Montalva is with at least 30M. It’s on if but when it’s approved.

 

30M is more than 600% return if cash flow is 180M. 30M is super conservative.

 

So if we take our 30M and divided by buy out price 73.79M we get 40 cents per share.

 

That means the lowest share price for grb (buy out + Montalva) should be current price + .40 cents = 1.7 + .40 = $2.1 

 

You are literally losing money if you sell for less than 2.10 per share.

 

That doesn’t include Alberta or real estate acquisition.

 

On the real estate acquisition… I don’t know if it’s even legal for Jeff to buy shares as long as he is negotiating for Paul’s company.

 

Wouldn’t that be insider trading?

 

So..I think we will see Jeff drop the news on the real estate company and then buy his 1M shares and when it’s all said and done the SP will be a lot higher than 2.10

 

Hold your shares tightly and have patience.

 

In terms of when grb will see Sage revenues…Jeff said before that project level financing you get full value when the shovel hits the ground as the bank guarantees the loan. The only way GRB couldn’t make the 80M profit is if the homes don’t sell. Let’s be serious here… those homes are going to sell.

Jeff - feel free to call me out if anything is out of line here or totally inaccurate. 

Comment by lunderk on Jul 14, 2021 10:45pm
I'm confused you just added Market cap to the defination of Market cap?  If you used all the decimals this should come out to the same number.   Either way still not sure why you added these together.
Comment by Hubbie87 on Jul 14, 2021 11:36pm
Seems like some clarification is needed. We have PWR owning 1/2 of Sage based on a NR from 2018 IF they pay for all the expenses of the project, yet last I have seen PWR isn't making any revenue and would have no way of paying $1 of expenses. So who owns what and who is paying what is anyone's guess at this point. Seems like a challenge to do any kind of NPV at this point which makes it a ...more  
Comment by Hubbie87 on Jul 15, 2021 1:03am
John R Hub  931 Wendy Lane  Incline Village, NV 89451 775.343.6633 
Comment by Hubbie87 on Jul 15, 2021 1:28am
We have all asked ourselves, especially those that own PWR, or considered it, why no news release to PWR regarding Sage? You invested thinking you owned 1/2 of Sage and now.. not even a NR to you about what you think you own?? Which begs the question, what does GRB own? Congrats on a huge milestone!! Finally!! What profit do your shares get?? I've seen a NPV from $50 mil to the highest being ...more