Greenbriar Sustainable Living Inc V.GRB

Residual land value / Navajojoe

[SvenVandeBroek]

Navajojoe, you are absolutely right i.m.o. that bare land isn't worth anywhere near US$150,000 in Tehachapi (for somewhat comparable lot sizes).

However, the 'residual land value' for Sage Ranch was calculated by Altus at US$124,719,669 in their 'Summary of project returns' table. That equites to around US$125,000 per lot.

Residual land value is a commercial real estate metric that estimates the valuation of raw land based on the planned improvements for it'.

The lots you're pointing to in Tehachapi seem to be also raw land but without most of those improvements included. Hence their much lower prices.

Most of them are indeed just bare land located in desert area near the city with no paved roads. Some of them seem to have access to water though. Some of them also seems to be part of some development project but their entitlement statuses are unknown to me.

You quoted:
"I am not convinced that bare land in Sage is worth $150,000+/lot. Considering the cost of water, sewer, power, and roads, that would push the lot prices into the stratosphere, IMO."

I hope we can now agree that the residual land value is the better metric for the Sage Ranch land rather than some other 'dirt land' prices in the neighbourhood :)

[9Islucky]

Sven:Thanks for bailing me out!,Joe:If I was a better investor,I could have written this.

[SvenVandeBroek]

Altus arrived at the residual land value of US$124,719,669 by adding US$1 million (the original land purchase prive) to the net present value for Sage Ranch (NPV = US$123,719,669). The NPV can be verified here as well: https://greenbriarcapitalcorp.ca/projects/sustainable-real-estate/sage-ranch/

[navajojoe]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[SvenVandeBroek]

Thanks for the additional nuance and the correction as well, Navajojoe. It's always great to hear other viewpoints. There are indeed several lots that have enough neighbours to call it a residential area. Although there also several lots that appear to be in a lesser developed area. I'm not sure if 9Islucky referred to a value per lot in C$ but if he did, he seems to be quite close to a C

[navajojoe]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Baserunner]

Please think before putting out a question like that! The whole of sage ranch could be taken out in short order! The demand is huge! The air force alone would love to have it developed just for them alone! There plan is over years ! 

[Baserunner]

Please think before putting out a question like that! The whole of sage ranch could be taken out in short order! The demand is huge! The air force alone would love to have it developed just for them alone! There plan is over years !@

[navajojoe]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[SvenVandeBroek]

1) Of course Navajojoe. The NPV is just a financial model that discounts future cash flows into a figure for today's value. Long delays will definitely impact that valuation negatively down the road. Obviously it also works around the other way as well. Anyone can estimate a NPV but the devil lies in the assumptions and all the other checks that are being made. That's why a prudent