Gensource Potash Corp V.GSP

Imagine that! Belarus and Russia found ways to sell potash

[mdjbrown]

Globe says Nutrien scraps plan to boost potash supply

2023-08-03 07:16 ET - In the News

 

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Nutrien is indefinitely suspending plans to ramp up its potash production, cutting its capital expenditure and reducing its profit forecast yet again. The Globe's Niall McGee writes that Nutrien is reducing its 2023 adjusted net earnings per share guidance to about $4.72 (U.S.) a share, compared with about $6.50 (U.S.) a share in May -- a figure that had already been revised downward from February. Nutrien had already warned last month that its profit forecast would soon be pared back, after it was forced to cut production at one of its mines owing to the inability to export potash out of the port of Vancouver amid a strike. Nutrien's exports were curtailed in the second quarter by continuing problems at a terminal in Portland, Ore. That facility was knocked out of potash service after a structural failure with its conveyor system in May. Although there were fears over a possible global shortage of potash after sanctions were imposed on major producers Belarus and Russia in 2021 and 2022, the market instead has been weak. That is because both countries have found alternative routes to subvert the sanctions, and find buyers in markets such as China.

[frostback]

From my understanding some nations such as Brazil and others were never included to have to abide to the sanctions imposed on potash exports form Russia and Belarus.  If there is a demand product will always find its way to market no matter what sanctions are imposed on the exporting nation.   

[mdjbrown]

It must be extremely frustrating frostback for junior non-producing potash execs trying to calculate accurate project CAPEX / OPEX cost projections, as there have been so many wild fluctuations in the past couple years. Low natural gas to record high natural gas back to average natty costs..... Record high potash prices due to supply fears only to fall to slightly above average to average

[frostback]

From what I understand all the Sask producers currently operating have curtailed CapEx to the bare minimum required.  How long this will last is anyone’s guess but does not bode well for the sector as a whole let alone the Jr. players hopeful to get into the game.  Timing on this one seems to be missed in terms of taking advantage of favorable commodity pricing, however if the project is

[mdjbrown]

Agree 100% frostback.