HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd V.HIVE

HIVE's upcoming report (on Yahoo as well)

[MxwllSmrt]

We must be hitting a bottom in this cycle... Here's my morning missive... JMO...

There's an OE ending at some point today with max pain at USD $49.5K and another OE (futures and options) ending on Friday 4/30 with max pain at USD $55K... this is the range for the week (this is where institutions and whales will be making the most money).

This is also what the dealer-brokers are watching and playing with as well.

As for HIVE's holdings and upcoming earnings... I'm curious to see what, if any, changes to the accounting rules are since the coins are being HODL'd and pricing has seen such a tremendous increase... I also hope to see a change in the narrative during reporting... a translation of ETH to BTC being HODL'd.

Here are a few other things I'm looking forward to hearing:

How may ETC (Ethereum Classic) was mined and sold to cover operational costs and expenses. 

Since Jan., ETC has gone from roughly USD $8.33 to USD $40.00 and has since settled around the USD $ 30.00 mark and if I remember correctly from the filings, HIVE was mining approximately 121K ETC per quarter... USD $3.63M - 4.84M less mining costs depending upon the sales price.

HIVE also stated in the same filings that it currently costs around USD $150 to mine a single ETH and pricing has increased from roughly USD $728.00 to USD $2300.00. Based on previous filings we can look to around 21K ETH mined. Then again, we may see an increase and be hit with a FH surprise (that's roughly USD $48.3M less the USD $3.15M in mining costs).

As for BTC, price has increased from USD $29K in Jan. 21 to USD $59K through March, and gone as high as USD $64K, to the upcoming OE's ranging from USD $49 - 55K. Let's just keep it simple around 175 BTC... so let's use USD $50K per coin (USD $7.5M less mining cost).

Remember now, as per the Mar. 2 filing, HIVE's earnings were USD $13.7M and USD $.05 per share.

Now, in a conversation I had with Lucas (Blonity) over a month ago, he estimated at the time HIVE was pulling in approximately USD $400K per day, but IMO, those numbers are very different today because of current price action/accuracies/discrepancies. Last month (March), ETH was approximately USD $1600, during the prior month (Feb.) ETH was mid $1440.00 and during the prior month (Jan.) ETH gets a gimme at USD 1300. BTC was in a range during the last quarter from USD $30K - USD $59K and ETC was in a range from USD $6 - USD $14...

So let's talk about HIVE's accounting practices....

At this point, because of the proposed uplisting, the actual disclosure of how many ETC coins that have been mined and sold during the quarter and a notice of when they were sold would help the company and investors tremendously; slippage for a miner, like with Gold or any other fungible PM, needs to be accounted and any lack thereof provides a genuinely unfavorable set of optics.

That being stated, if last Q's YOY of USD $13.7M and was an increase of 174%, this Q report should be a mauling of the last Quarter over Quarter report.

Things I'd like to hear discussed:

1. The actual delivery dates of mining Hardware from Bitmain and the others. Supply Chain disruption needs to be discussed and addressed so there's the ability for true price discovery, especially in comparison to the other companies in the vertical and for obvious reasons i.e. earnings related to BTC and operational costs with the company.

2. Clarifications related to card/software integration; there have been a few conflicting comments made in press as to the a GPU upgrading process.

3. Discussion and accounting of the ATM and the specific discussion of the use of the funds derived therefrom.

4. Discussion of the 50MW acquisition and use of equity and cash and attendant accounting.

5. Discussion of Defi Technologies: Defi Tech could be one of the smartest investments ever because of its CEO and what the company does. 

However, IMO, it also stinks to high heaven because Olivier is involved. Olivier was a founder of HIVE and got a pass through the whole GENESIS debacle and for all intensive purposes although swept under the rug, some of us still need answers. Moreover, with Olivier stepping down from the HIVE's board last quarter and recently popping up in a deal that involves a stock swap with HIVE, it looks and smells bad.

However, that being said, Defi Tech is brilliant company and its CEO is genuinely a real tech CEO; one experienced and knowledgeable where blockchain is concerned - MEV, Staking, Yield Farming, Loan Origination and the knowledge of Defi opportunity the transition from P0W into P0S/ re-direction of the GPU's... tremendous earning potential... but like I said, this one has some concern.

6. Corporate Governance… don't get me started... especially if the company is to go on a US Exchange.

GLTA.

[AlphaJ]

All great stuff Mxwll. Sounds like you've done your DD. Unfortunately, no one with intelligence invests in a company that is priced at a 20 year multiple forward earnings when 45% of their revenue is going obsolete in less then 2 months and 90% is gone in 6 months. Thats just the bottom line. Doesn't matter how great hive is doing now, their current main business model has an expiration

[MxwllSmrt]

Couldn't disagree with you more... and your numbers aren't even close to being correct. Moreover, you lack vision in understanding how the GPU hardware adapts to new earning opportunities and potential... and I'm not here to argue with you but I can tell you that the Defi Tech deal will offer benefit no one sees coming. BTW, love to see the math you're using... I need a laugh and a

[AlphaJ]

What's wrong with my math? The lead developer of 1559 is anticipating a 50% reduction in miner revenue. These aren't MY number guys. Vitalik Buterin said they are aiming to launch 2.0 by October and a month ago canceled all etheruem 1.0 projects. 90% profits of 0 revenue = 0. These aren't MY numbers. So, what exactly are you saying? That the people who govern and created etheruem dont

[MxwllSmrt]

The first thing that I'm saying is that your math is incorrect regarding your statement that HIVE is priced at a 20 year multiple forward earnings and that 45% of their revenue is going obsolete in less then 2 months and 90% will be gone in 6 months... The second thing that I'm saying is regardless of EIP-1559, the company will utilize it's GPU miners in ways that both maximize

[AlphaJ]

well, simple math. If they net profit of 17 million last quarter. Lets assume they'll earn 60 million by end of year based on their last finacial statement. 60 million x 20 is 1.2 Billion and their market cap is current 1.33 billion. So they are actually trading at slightly above 20 year multiple. And you say I have bad math? ....Again, for the second time. THOSE ARNT MY NUMBERS. If hive

[MxwllSmrt]

Well, there's part of the problem... I'm saying that they've probably done closer to 2-3X your estimate... and I'm not concerned with the developers discussing mining... I'm saying HIVE will utilize their assets in a way that will allow the company to evolve into what's next./. You stated your position here and say $ USD 17M... I take the over... period. Anything over your

[AlphaJ]

So your saying by December 31 2021, hive's net profit will be 120 to 180 million USD? This is a terrible bet. We all now the numbers will be higher on their next report coming June 2021. My horizons are measured in years...not months. Plus you won't see any indication of pain until they announce their quarterly for 2021 Q3 which won't be until January 2022 ...

[MxwllSmrt]

No... I'm not saying that at all...the bet was offered because of your typing skills (and not my lack of assumption to add the X after 20)...  I'd like to believe you were actually stating a 20X multiple and not a 20 year multiple... and I was poking fun at you...I would have taken your ETH because of the typo... and I do understand that the company is profitable and other

[AlphaJ]

Ok, i guess you right about my terminology. You know what i meant. But I have heard analysts refer to multiples in years. So if hive is trading 20x. And their net profit didn't change. Its would take 20 years for their earnings to equate their valuation. I know I heard it like this before. Other analysts for example with Tesla. They say its trading 60x, in other words, their said investors are

[MxwllSmrt]

You would have lost the bet... what matters is wht you've written... that's the record. Anyhow, your assumption that HIVE's profit hasn't changed is incorrect because you've also missed the change in pricing for both ETH and BTC... and the numbers for Quarter over Quarter are going to be 3X the previous due to the increases in crypto... the earnings report will also show EPS

[AlphaJ]

How am I supposed to respond to this when you've clearly misinterpreted what I said. For example, I never said hive was going obsolete. I said 90% of their current business model is going obsolete. Try reading it correctly first before responding. I even just said to emphasize in my las post, I dont think hive is going out of business, I just see major hurdles. So your reading what you want to

[bullFire]

You have no other agument. You repeat youself non stop. ETH 2.0 eth 2.0 eth 2.0. You ignore defi, steaking, lending, etc. you have no vision, You sound uneducated and dumb af.

[AlphaJ]

no, you sound dumb asf. Show me hive's business proposals on all these products that they have initiated or currently involved in. None? Just a bunch of ideas right? So your dumb@ss is ASSUMING they have concrete plans . I dont work on maybes and whatifs. I work i concrete plans and what is. You sound like a little girl living in her hive fantasy hoping and wishing.

[bullFire]

You dont work on assuming? Your not assuming BITF will get all their miners in time? your not assuming Bitcoin will hit 100k? your not assuming BITF will not dilute share? Getttt the facccckkk outta here loser. You sound sooooooo dumb when you speak.

[AlphaJ]

none of those points had to do with BUSINESS MODEL you inbred. Everything you you mention is market condition which is risk on ANY investment. Honesty stop talking. Your the dumbest person in Canada.

[AlphaJ]

honestly dude. I am waaaay above your intelligence level. You can't even follow the conversation. Stop referring to me. Your a complete idiot.

[bullFire]

HAHAHAHH "AlphaJ here, I dont work on assumptions". *** Bases his Lifesavings on assuming bitcoin will hit 100-200k** lmfao what an idiot.

[AlphaJ]

again, bc you have the intelligence of a 6th grader you can't even materialize this investment. You don't invest in crypto primarily bc the price goes up you stupid inbred. I told you, you get more dumb by the day. While that may be a side effect, you invest in crypto bc its an evolutionary technology that is disruptive to the traditional finacial system you f'in tw@t. Honestly, stfu

[beachbum82]

WOW more i read your post more I said to my self, if you're what you said ( engineer and have a ccie ) poor employees with a boss like you. And poor kid at home.  Good luck to you in your life.

[AlphaJ]

Correction. I have a 'Rich kid' at home. If you haven't noticed. Since I've switch from hive to bitf at the end of January. BITF has been the best performing miner on the market. I may be an @$$hole to you. But I win and so does my family as a proxy to my success. My son will learn from a very young age how to be a man take risks. Not how to be a b!tch that works a 9-5 and says yes

[MxwllSmrt]

"... when 45% of their revenue is going obsolete in less then 2 months and 90% is gone in 6 months. Thats just the bottom line. Doesn't matter how great hive is doing now, their current main business model has an expiration date and that will hinder its price for all you investor whether you agree or not". For whatever variety of reasons you seem to want to keep going, this is

[STYLEWARZ]

None of my questions regarding Genesis have ever been answered. NONE!!!! Marco was right, they should have kept mining at a loss that whole time.