The last company that claimed they could do what HPQ is doing....they couldn't get it scalable for market so could only offer it as a high cost niche product. That company was Timminco and at peak-hype before they told everyone "sorry, it's not gonna work quite like we thought" their share price hit $30/share. This was 12ish years ago.
I'll tell you right now - I see $30-60/share by 2030. Maybe more? Coincidentally, in 2030, Tesla plans to produce approximately 17× more lithium-ion batteries than the whole world produced in 2019.
Personally, I think one of the NDAs is with Elon Musk. I see Tesla as more of a battery company/energy storage solutions company than an EV company. I think a lot of people are missing that/undervaluing that aspect of TSLA (not that the stock is undervalued necessarily, lol). I think in the next 5-10 years we'll see TSLA use HPQ to very quickly become the World's producer of this next generation silicon battery (which will start to be used in everything).
This quote from Sept article:"Tracking 167 battery factories, Benchmark Minerals was forecasting 2.7 TWh of annual battery cell production capacity globally by 2030. The company forecasted that Tesla would be at 200 GWh of that total. As we now know, Tesla plans to produce 15× more than that, 3 TWh of battery cells a year by 2030."
Tesla already has a battery pilot plant in California that is ramping up production - as stated in above article. They also have the Nevada battery factory (Giga Nevada). From Wikipedia,
"Prior to the building of more gigafactories, Tesla may expand and potentially double the size of Gigafactory 1. In June 2015, Tesla announced it exercised its option to buy 1,864 acres (754 hectares) of land adjacent to the original 1,000-acre (400 ha) Gigafactory site... they are considering increasing the size of the gigafactory here by 50 to 100 percent"
I see all this ^ as the situation being extremely primed for explosive growth. Meanwhile, HPQ needs until Q3 2021 to assemble their Gen 2 PUREVAP NSiR and validate it. We'll see TSLA start to tweak their recipe and use different battery chemistry (more and more silicon) in their different products (semi, etc) between now and 2023 - (and we've already seen them change the battery design on Battery day). Maybe producing batteries using HPQ technology on production scale by what...maybe late 2023?
What I wonder is - will Elon buy HPQ? He seems like the kind of person who would want to own the company that owns the technology that makes the batteries in his factories. Tesla has a lot of money on hand with stock splits etc. That might be deliberate on Elon's part - as he knows he is going to be buying some companies soon (HPQ).
Again, this from my perspective of HPQ having a Earth/life changing tech solution. We already know TSLA is in the process of picking battery tech up off the ground and is about to start sprinting with it. Global warming becomes easier to mitigate with energy storage being 3-4x easier, etc. Lots of problems becomes easier to solve/life improved overall (esp for me).