- RIVER'S COMPULATIONS -( initially used River's figures as a base -he's smarter than me ) Given the average machine count for Q3 was 1700
$2,540,548/1700/ 90 days = $16.60
Q4 is the second best performing quarter so these estimates are based on the worst quarter
$16.60 x 90 x 2500 = $3,735,000
Bingo Sales $527,068
Total revenue _______________
$4,262,068 US
Less expenses - refer to his original post -
RIVERFOLK Q4 estimate $2,087,568
POSTED EARNING OF $1,582,974 US
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WANGO - The above estimates from river i'd say are pretty desent - but what would be the EPS - with such a figure - so i admit - i forgot the dang formula to arrive at a valuation - so i did a simple search and multiplied the earnings by 4 quarters for a yearly earnings - and thewn divided the 350mm shares into - $6,331,896/ yearly estimated earnings to arrive at
.0181 and then i sad - what the hell? How come its so low.... lol
Few scratches of the head....
i then realized I forgot to multiply the figure by the industry factor of 7 - (embarrassing indeed )
After reconfiguring - i arrived at the figure of = $0.1267 cents.... whew !
But it appears were right back to where we started with the original price prior to all the advancing.... Which is mind boggling.... All that advancing and earning and acquisitions and assets - to only arrive at a market value of where we were all before the excitement started...
So - im hoping PYD comes out with over 2 million in earnings - like 2.3 - 2.5 million is what i was hoping for .... No hype - just trying to guage the numbers by - Q-3
If they earned over 1 million in true numbers with only 1700 machines in play - and during a low season of earnings - then what would the Q-4 push out in earnings - during the second busiest season especially christmas time holiday seasons - and with about 2500 machines -
that's 800 more machines and assuming far less one time expenses - from the Integrity purchaes that cut into pyd earnings in q-3.
So given they have less expenses than Q-3 less - less one time expenses - and given they have 800 more machines in play than q-3 and totalling about 2500 machines for almost the entire Q-4 - question is - how much more can the 800 machines capture -and how much more can they earn during a busier season for this up in coming Q-4 quarter....?
One can only guesstimate - and once q-4 numbers come out - it will provide far more info. to really valuate - so all one can do is estimate... .
I can see how River came up with the 1/3 more than 1 million of q-3 to arrive at the 1.5 million expectation for q-4 - but that was using the lower $16.60 - per machine figure....
Personally I was hoping for a solid $20+ dollars per machine.... Like $22 ?
But what if the holiday was strong and still captured $20 per machine - Q-4 ?
Q-4 estimation if $20 per machine was earned -
$20 x 90 x 2500 = $4,500,000 + $527,068 (bingo sales) = $5,027,068 - 2.7 million expenses = $2,327,068 x 4 quarters for a annual estimation = $9,308,272 divided by 350mm = .0266 x 7 industry factor = $0.186 cents.... Not to obad.. very close to that .17 from the pro assesors...
Seems good to me - but i was wondering how the pro assesors were coming up with the .22 - .26 cents ? Maybe they were projecting what PYD would or could amasss at end of Q-4 - or later in the year like the new Q-1 ? and basing PYD reinvesting their earnings - all the more earnings and placing such profits back into - all the more slots.... ?
But then i thought .. hmmmm maybe maybe not... its still a lower figure than the pros - then the light went on.... I said it has to be... yes, it has to be something else - something like - the USD - CDN - currency conversion - ?
USD - CDN CONVERSTION....
So - i decided to convert the estimated earnings ( $20/machine less expenses ) to CDN - and why not - this company is a Canadian listed company - earns in American $$$ - but technically should they not post earnings in CDN if listed in Canada? It would be logical to think so......
So here is the usd estimated earnings converted to CDN.... All in plight to try to understand how the pro assesors arrived at higher valuations.... Hoping that my estimation would as well arrive near or at least close to their higher figures figures....
q-4 estimated profits $2,327,068 x 1.39 conversion = $3234624.52 x 4 quarters for an annual estimation = $12,938, 498.08 divided by 350mm = .037 x 7 = $0.259 cents....
Well i must say... that was my first try - (honest) and thats pretty darn good - coming into that .26 range - what the pros came up with their high end figure....
With PYD moving forward.... i can't wait till they invest more and capture more contracts with all the more slots - racking up the money - This style of slot machine lease business - started small - and is now picking up momentum - on a good track - and really begining to snow ball with all the more slot machines and that means all the more profits....
Go pyd..... Invest that other cash on hand and place more slot machines... !
P.S
My figures are in no way investment advice... i was just trying to see how the pro assesors came up with figures of .17 - .22 - .26 cents.... i would have to beleive they were converting the earning from usd back into cdn otherwise the figures are nowhere near those higher valuations the pros came up with - OR - the pros were projecting the valuations based on the assumption of what PYD would have in machines by ending q-4 - or later in the year - 2016 -
based on reinvesting earnings and adding all the more machines.... Which at the present rate - if pyd keeps doing the reinvesting.. it only snow balls al lthe more...in profits...
Hey... PYD still have the 3.5 - 4.5 million and up comming Q-4 profits - this is getting exciting..... and now the newly added (cryptolock) tech side of things....too !
So hopefully i did my calculation correctly.. please do not take this as fact or being solid nor investment advice .... Just trying to grasp how to valuate a company and how thepros came up with their figures .... ( novice of course still learning ).
And of course i find this gaming industry sector very rigid in evaluating a company.... unlike other penny stock sectors that have that way factor of - higher investor speculation and investor likability - seems the casino gaming sector .... its all about - show me the bottom line earnings - period... and rightly so....
So i don't know the accounting rules - if a company earns in usd - are they obligated to post in usd ? But since they're a Canadian company - can they not as well post a conversion rate in Canadian profits? I guess that will be my next seek and find...
Cheers !