Reviewing fundamentals of the diamond market.
To paraphrase a former director of the Diamond Trading Company (the wing of DeBeers responsible for selling rough diamonds): The demand for diamonds is driven by two factors: greed and vanity. We do not foresee a shortage of either in the future.
There has been some talk of late of rising diamond prices. Part of this is that diamonds, like almost all commodities, are priced in US dollars. As the dollar goes down the price goes up. Most economists would agree that the US dollar is falling relative to the other major currencies. This situation is different from a few years ago, when South African producers were closing mines, some in part due to end of mine life, but also in part due to a strong Rand versus the US dollar.
On the other hand, news stories such as the failed auction of a 72 c pear-cut D flawless diamond certainly grasp the attention of people following global diamond trends.
So in which direction is the diamond market heading? If one were to look at the stock performance of most diamond mining and exploration companies, and take that as an indicator of the diamond market, then things are definitely downhill. That poses the question of whether the very poor performance of diamond companies (see a previous article) has anything to do with loss of demand, or if it is due to more general financial pressures. Prolific analysts in the industry, such as Allan Barry Laboucan, believe that the diamond market is strong, that the above quote stays true, and current market lows are temporary.
I have to agree with Mr. Laboucan and his like-minded colleagues. Diamonds will continue to see strong demand. In particular the emerging upper-class of very populous countries (China and India) will continue to be a growing market for luxury goods, one that will outstrip that of the U.S. Even if only 1% of the 2.4 billion people living China and India make it to the high disposable income level to afford luxury goods in the next ten years, that is a new crop of 24 million consumers - a number a little short of the population of Canada.
With a few exceptions, e.g. Jericho (operations now suspended by Tahera (TSX: T.TAH, Bullboard)), there have been no large diamond mines opened in the past five years since the end of the 1990s diamond boom and the startup of Ekati (BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP, Bullboard)) and Diavik (Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO, Bullboard) and Harry Winston (TSX: T.HW, Bullboard)). This will disturb the supply chain for diamonds for years to come. Should current projects falter now, a shortage of diamonds in the near future is inevitable and will be accompanied by rising diamond prices. Current projects, mostly in Canada, include Snap Lake and Victor (DeBeers), Fort a la Corne (Shore Gold (TSX: T.SGF, Bullboard), and Renard (Stornoway (TSX: T.SWY, Bullboard)).
The problem with diamonds is that they are not just any other commodity. Gemstones are evaluated individually based on a number of characteristics unique to each individual stone. It can be difficult to determine if prices for diamonds are increasing due to this increased complexity. Mr. Laboucan alludes to this by mentioning the fact that companies producing larger/high quality diamonds will always see strong business as such goods are for the “ultra-rich” and immune to economic swings. The market for smaller/lower quality diamonds is more sensitive to economic pressures and is mainly a function of the level of disposable income possessed by the upper-middle class. This brings us back to the emerging middle class in the BRIC countries, the potential size of which could very well dwarf that of North America, and possibly even Europe as well. Should the economies of these countries continue to grow, the above scenario becomes a strong possibility. Even with signs of slowdown in China, other growing countries such as India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey will pull up the slack.
With these fundamentals in mind, a cautious investor should be able to pick the most promising diamond companies now, when they are cheap. Assuming due diligence has been properly performed, strong gains could be reaped in the market within a few years time.
Disclaimer: The author holds 500 shares of Stornoway Diamonds. This article is based on the personal opinions and experience of the author. Investors are responsible for their own due diligence.
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