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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Jemtec Inc V.JTC

JEMTEC Inc. is a Canada-based provider of integrated technology systems for community-based corrections. The Company's business is the provision of services and technology for offender monitoring in Canadian federal and provincial correctional departments. Its solutions include government agencies, and bail & immigration monitoring. The Company's offender location detection/verification... see more

TSXV:JTC - Post Discussion

Jemtec Inc > Boring and profitable
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Post by Torontojay on Oct 16, 2021 11:25am

Boring and profitable

Jemtec is a true hidden gem waiting to be discovered. Let's go over why I believe Jemtec could be a multi-bagger in the making. For starters, Jemtec was trading at around 40 cents per share 5 years ago and today trades at $1.88. It has paid a 25 cent per share one time dividend earlier in 2021 and it may continue to issue more special dividends. As of the latest financial statement, Jemtec has a cash balance of $1,615,920. Their current marketcap is right around $ 5,253,996 which implies that over 30.7% of their marketcap is held in cash. The company holds no long or short term debt and has a short term lease liability in the amount of $ 9,647. Most of their long term property, plant and equipment has been fully depreciated on the books and so book value is being under represented. Shareholders equity is currently at $1,642,701 and we get a price to book value of just over 3 times. The company holds no intangible or goodwill on the books. 

If we look at the income statement we get the following: Over the last 12 trailing months we get a company that has produced $508,560 in net income. If we take away the cash balance we get a company that is trading at a PE ratio of 7.15! Moreover, its return on equity is 30.95%

In the last 12 months the company has revenues of $2,468,964 and a weighted average diluted share count of 2,809,728. From the months of May 1st 2015 to April  30th 2016 or precisely 5 years ago, the company has achieved revenue of $863,616 with a weighted average diluted share count of 2,485,654. This implies a 5-year revenue per share growth rate of 20.39% which is outstanding! Year over year, the company has achieved revenue growth rate per share of 6.599%. Let's take a look at valuation. 

Let's assume the company can maintain its net profit of about $500k going forward. I will use a cost of equity of 10% and a pessimistic growth rate of 0 %. 

Market value= 500/ (10%-0%) = $5m or slightly below its current market value. If we add the cash balance of $1.6 m we get a fair value of about $6.6m which is about 25% higher than we are at today. There is certainly sufficient evidence to support the claim that the company should growth in the years ahead and so a 0% growth rate is rather unrealistic. Let's go ahead and assume a 2.5% growth rate which corresponds to the breakeven inflation rate over the next 10 years. Under the following scenario and using normalized earnings of $500k per year we get the following: 

market value= $500k/(10%-2.5%) =~ $6.67 m 
Add the cash balance of $1.615m and we get a fair market value of $8.285m which is 57.7% higher than current market cap is today. Here is the interesting part. What if the company can continue to growth it's equity at double digit growth rates for many more years into the future? What should we be worth today? I will say almost certainly that the company has some serious potential for long term gains and I think today's market prices provides a safe cushion on the downside with significant upside potential.

Comment by DudeRancher1953 on Oct 19, 2021 10:33am
Thanks for the post. I view the company in a similar manner. One concern I have is that the CEO is extremely key here and to a certain extent is a one-person show. I may be wrong on this, however it appears that way to me. So it would be nice to know about succession plans as they would be key in any sale of the company.
Comment by benzobenzo on Dec 04, 2021 1:25am
Thank you.  I have directly asked management succession plans and also the certainty of long term contracts.  A few years ago their Ontario govt contract completed and was not renewed.  It was a large contract and then top and bottom line decreased.  They subsequently won newer contracts and have been successful.  Asset light business and doing well at this time but ...more  
Comment by Philbert77 on Dec 18, 2021 5:00pm
The CEO is not a young man and he does hold a fair number of shares. I suspect at some point this company will get bought out. How else is he going to unload such a large amount of shares?
Comment by DudeRancher1953 on Dec 20, 2021 1:00pm
You mention the loss of the Ontario gov't contract. Any idea who took over that business? I don't know a lot about the competition here however I suspect it is the technology companies themselves that are also offering the services using their technology. Any thoughts on that? Thanks very much for your post.
Comment by benzobenzo on Dec 21, 2021 4:55pm
I'm not sure who won the Ontario gov't contract.  However when it was not renewed Jemtec for years lost money.  It was selling for less than NCAV.  Now the business metrics look great as the new Ontario contract has come into effect.  The latest contract was to expire in March 2021 w/ 2, 1yr annual renewal options.  Recently, Solgen, in Sept '21, has put out an ...more