Century Lithium Corp V.LCE

Updated Numbers / Share Price Estimates

[yakattack]

Current LCE Price: $12,595

 

Current financial stats based on LCE price using PFS numbers and 8% discount: 

 

 

 

1.67 Billion USD (2.25 CAD)

IRR of 55%

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $7.77 CAD

Piedmont equivalent share price = $13.5 CAD

 

 

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If hydroxide is being used.... then we have:

 

2.36 Billion USD (3.19 Billion CAD)

88% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11 CAD

Piedmont equivalent share price = $19.14 CAD

 

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If hydrochloric acid and sodium chloride works out and opex can get to... $2,600 instead of $3,300:

 

2.55 Billion USD (3.44 Billion CAD)

100% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11.86 CAD

Piedmont equivalent share price = $20.64 CAD

 

 

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If hydro/chloride is used and opex is at $2,600 LCE spot price rises to $14K:

 

3 Billion USD (4 Billion CAD)

145% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $13.79 CAD

Piedmont equivalent share price = $24 CAD

 

 

We sit at $1.36 CAD

[yakattack]

With knowing the below.... how can Cypress allow their market cap to sit where it does? We are around 140M and we have pumpcity LI at 400M. The higher the market cap gets in negotiations the better it is and the more backing you have. It's a part of deal making. If these german promos work so well, why aren't we doing them? We are actually marketing something that is tangible, unlike

[yakattack]

How does American lithium get a co-receipt for a grant from the govt for a pilot plant but we don't? I personally feel now that any NDA is trying to get the project on the cheap and they just might be successful considering the financing price we just saw.

[johnu48]

Li getting the grant and not CYP speaks volumes.  Li has been promoting itself while CYP hasn't has a lot to do with it.  It also seems to say that there isn't much confidence in CYP's project from the govenments perspective.  Not good, that's why we are down today as I predicted in my post yesterday.  Looks like CYP SP may go below the PP price.  Have mgmt

[Obamanomics]

perhaps CYP doesn't need the grant money & are moving forward on their own... you seem negative & impatient, if you're that uncomfortable, then sell your CYP shares and buy LI since they got a grant, it's really that simple.

[johnu48]

Actually it's not that simple when you have invested heavily in CYP and recieve very little support from MGMT.   No news as to whether the PP closed or not does not auger well for CYP either. It might be that a NDA is trying to grind the  SP down to give a low ball offer or that this project is a bust.

[johnu48]

By the way everyone seeks grant money whether they need it or not.  That's just good business.

[Obamanomics]

read this link:   https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g41in0-49F6D83B-6412-405B-AB4C-3F12E374162A.png not saying it's 100% accurrate, still digging. Looks like a cell phone screen shot

[yakattack]

I've likely been here a lot longer than you pal

[yakattack]

Need 120% gain just to get back to previous area of 2.50, let alone proper value north of $7 before pilot. Sad. Also the price of lithium went up again.... now at 12,929 up some 400 or so since this previous updated post below....

[desertbarnacle]

Dirty rotten week for CYP, no question.  Would guess the lack of the bought deal closure could be some people who had called for part of the overallotment might be flaking out in here, a short term issue.  NRM hit 50 cents then bounced hard back to 70 cents, 20 cent range.  Time for CYP to get back to reversing hard off selling. Glad nopoo is supporting by buying. Bob

[jamstk]

Hey DB you seem to be somewhat of an expert on this play so I ask, why the huge run up and unbelievable excitement over a month ago and now the huge nosedive. The pilot plant in time May tell the story but in the meantime will this keep dropping a dime a day ? 

[desertbarnacle]

jamstk, Like you, I am not an insider, was several years ago but now have no more access to info than you.  I got caught in the excitement as well and have paid the price now.  What was it?  No clue.  Except that CYP has one of best deposits of lithium on the planet, that certainly is part of the story. Do not think it is look out below now.  This most recent selling may

[yakattack]

What is your target value and why Bob? I feel $7 cad by pilot time is more than reasonable. With hydroxide and pricing it will only be somewhere around 40% ev/Npv, still below peers

[desertbarnacle]

Yak, My gut feel number is $5 US.  If a couple key pieces fall into place we could be right in your numbers very easily.   Better week next week, not saying much! Bob

[yakattack]

That sounds fair enough. $6.75 CAD or so. I am praying investors have some sense here and quit the mindless selling.  What is the timeline for you on this? What are the  "couple key pieces" in your mind?

[desertbarnacle]

Yak, One key piece is permitting, that will determine the timeline.  One other key piece is something I hope we hear about soon. Bob

[yakattack]

H20?

[yakattack]

I see Bob has started a blurb on CYP on his 321gold site.... "Cypress Development (CYP-V) announced a short form prospectus raise for $17 million at $1.25 in February. Cypress owns 100% of the Clayton Valley Lithium property in Nevada right next to the Silver Peak lithium brine mine that has been in production since 1966.   The Clayton Valley project is big, 593 million tonnes of 1

[desertbarnacle]

Yak, Bob Who?  Just saying it is not this Bob! Bob

[yakattack]

Moriarty. He's been around along time. Mostly a gold guy. Lots of experience and time. Very opiniated. Likely can't say much about cyp until allowed to...