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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Century Lithium Corp V.LCE

Alternate Symbol(s):  CYDVF

Century Lithium Corp. is a Canada-based advanced stage lithium company, focused on developing its 100%-owned Clayton Valley Lithium Project in west-central Nevada, United States. The Company is engaged principally in the acquisition, exploration, and development of its mineral properties. The Company is in the pilot stage of testing on material from its lithium-bearing claystone deposit at its... see more

TSXV:LCE - Post Discussion

Century Lithium Corp > End Game - Numbers
View:
Post by yakattack on Aug 05, 2021 3:26pm

End Game - Numbers

Prices for Lithium may move up to 17-18K in the fall. We all know Bill would never use such a price for a FS... and it would have to be secure on the downside as well....so i'm guessing the FS (if we even get to one) - will be dropped 30% lower or so - maybe around 12-13K
 
At 13K, with 31K tonnes of hydroxide at an OPEX of 3K.... we're looking at an IRR of about 78% after 8% discount....... for a NPV of 2.2 Billion USD
 
For someone to buyout completely (yes, total ownership) at a value of 40-50% of the project (EV/NPV) is more than reasonable for such a project - and that's if the reserves in the mine plan stay as is - we all know it can be scaled easier with chloride.

That puts us around 7x from here in CAD terms... for 9.30-$10.20ish CAD.
 
Using the same valuations given to standard lithium would be well over 40 dollars......9-10 CAD is far more realistic..

To put it in perscpective.... if TSLA were to buy CYP outright for 50% of the project's value using numbers above.... it would only be about 0.15% of their market cap.... or nearly 1/7th of 1 percent...

It's waaaay overdue and far past the time for NDAs to hide behind the so called talks.... either put up or get out.

Management has a responsibility to get the share price as high as they can for shareholders - so these NDAs better not be a NDA for much longer.

AGM is approaching....
Comment by jamstk on Aug 06, 2021 1:34am
You sure sound like u know what you're talking about ..hope you are in the ball park, would make me happy 
Comment by tiger2201 on Aug 06, 2021 7:37am
Hi yakattack, Good analysis! Few things I would disagree wth you. One is CYP's cost, I believe 3K is just too low, remeber it is in the US, cost is much higher than other places, I say 4k to 5k would be realistic. The 2nd is the buyer will not pay us $9 to $10, I would be happy if they pay half of that.  CYP's management needs to pump up our share price, then we may get a higher ...more  
Comment by yakattack on Aug 06, 2021 1:25pm
Welcome aboard. Just a couple points. Regarding costs of 4-5K. I disagree. The PFS already has a cost of around 3,300. Using chloride will reduce this to a lower amount - not yet counting for rare earths. I have no idea where you are getting 5K from. It's not going to get more expensive. Regarding buyout - you are correct. No board is going to offer an 800% premium (not premier). This ...more