Longford Energy Inc V.LFD

Short-Term Pullback?

[DriveKiller]

I like LFD.  I like their prospects longer term.  In looking at the technicals though, I think it's due for a bit of a pullback, which would be consistent with the way it's been trading for the last couple of months.

Right now the RSI and Stochastics are showing overbought. The MACD is still showing postive, but it typically lags the other two indicators from a signal perspective.  In mid-October, it tested new highs of .26-.27 before pulling back.  In mid-November, it tested .28-.29 before pulling back.  This week, they've been around .32-.33 cents (tested .34 intraday).  As I said, some of the technicals are showing overbought and signaling a turn so I think it's run out of gas at this level right now and there may be a bit of a pull back before ultimately testing newer highs.

They're not planning to spud a well until Q2 2011 according to their presentation so there won't be any news in the short term (e.g. flow results) to push the stock price higher....just speculation.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.  But, just some things to consider.

In the spirit of transparency, I got in a .28 and got out at .325.  I'm hoping the pullback will materialize in order to buy back in, but figured I'd lock in some gains rather then watch them melt away if my analysis did come to pass.  

Some on the board may agree, others may disagree, but I think the good thing here is to put thoughtful comments regarding stocks that others may find value in rather then simply pumping or bashing. There've been some good posts to date that I've enjoyed reading so to those that do that, keep it up.  

Good luck to all.  To stay consistent with everyone else on Stockhouse, the above comments are IMHO :)

DK 

[taxdemicco]

Hello everyone,Thank-you for reading my posts and for being very kind to me with your comments.The trading pattern of late is one of a step ladder, new steps being created with higher highs and, higher lows and increasing volume.Investors are concentrated on the following speculaltion which will continue to drive the stock:a)  Detailed report coming either before Christmas or, in January 2011

[good40]

That's a couple of times that you've used revenue.  Would you mind explaining where the revenue comes from,what would be a rough estimate of capital expense going in,  and what are the terms of the PSC signed with the KRG ?You've only been around for a few days,  it appears as if you've just invented another handle to scam some that might not be experienced. 

[taxdemicco]

I apreciate your question, no need to throw labels as to my intentions.   I have a LONG position, a significant one.  I am not invested in VST and WZR as I think both will flop due to wildcat operation with very huge risk.   At VST they speak of 6 billion barrels of oil, however when you read further you realize that there is only a 17% chance of having such a hit. 

[wolfgang13]

Taxdemicco, as Baxter kindly noted I wish that you would quit posting incorrect information and bashing the other Kurdistan Oil plays. You have obviously not done your DD. VST has already confirmed a possible 64 metre pay zone, which is a lot larger than the 64 feet that you are stating. This find was totally unexpected and is a great bonus. They are currently right on top of their main targets

[good40]

Where did you get 4.8k bopd per day ?  Has this been developed ?  Initial flush production or long term rate with decline ?You used $80/bbl which is the rough current value of the commodity,  without operational costs.You used 365 days... is the first development to run every day,  all through the year without down time ?They have a 40% working interest,  this is not their

[bazilfawlty]

G40Bottom line is Gas is very valuable all over the world especially Europe nand erasia and Asia etc.infrastructures of all types are being built for LNG and condesates.This is the next energy push ...so the reduction of flaring and higher market demand ..has pointed the companies to make it profitable for Gas production.Why even some companies are exploring for gas...where market demand is high

[sumeroil]

it's best NOT TO ENGAGE....did you see south park "the death of eric cartman?"just ignore him. he is irrational, irate, inane, insane .....

[good40]

I have to disagree baz... gas is not valuable in Kurdistan... there's no market nor infrastructure.  I've seen italready when WZR announced a gas discovery... the stock tanked like you wouldn't believe.      So the real bottom line is this... the poster called taxdemicco just invented a new handle and promotedthe value of LFD equal to gross revenue from an

[taxdemicco]

Good Afternoon Everyone,I would like to respond to some of my harsh critics whom claim to know so much and yet do very little or insignificant due diligence.SOROS would not get into a play like LFD if the payoff was not huge, the same goes with STAN BHARTI.The risk at LFD is NONE, they have the oil, VST and WZR do not.  Check the website photos.So lets calculate true value of LFD as SOROS

[casa9988]

The pdf file on their website says it all...Good risk reward play

[Baxter4]

Wow, three false claims in one post where you are pretending to prove you critics wrong.I would like to respond to some of my harsh critics whom claim to know so much and yet do very little or insignificant due diligence.I have done a lot of DD on Vast, which is why I posted to prove your statement false.The risk at LFD is NONE, they have the oil, VST and WZR do not.  There is always a risk

[good40]

You are taking Prospective Resource numbers and giving them a value of $80 for each barrel.Prospective Resource is by definition... undiscovered potential.  Don't forget that,  undiscovered.  It is completelyunrisked,  as compared to reserves.  You need to multiply the risk of discovery by the chance for development, which,is sure to be less than 10%.I might add, 

[taxdemicco]

I would like to address this last comment of yours: "Undeveloped oil in the ground,  appraised sufficiently to be classified as 2P oil reserves,are worth about $4/bbl."Using your numbers gives an asset value to LFD of $ 12 billion for undeveloped oil in the ground.CONCLUSION:Per your own numbers:   Value of LFD, undeveloped oil:      

[sumeroil]

good40 and baxter40 might be a team, imo......it's best to ignore them and not to engage with them.

[Baxter4]

Per your own numbers:   Value of LFD, undeveloped oil:        $ 12 billion (based on 3.1 billion barrels of oil)You're using 100% recovery and 100% ownership.Last year the value of P1 + P2 reserves was $14.40/BOE. When LFD proves up the reseves on the block, this is closer to the value of the oil.I've been accused of having other aliases (mainly

[good40]

You are making this out to be a scam taxdemicco.  You wouldn't have to do that if you were securein your investment.Get this straight,  oil reserves have value,  prospective resource doesn't.Therefore your 3 billion barrels is worth nothing... undeveloped 2P oil in the ground worth $4/bbl anddeveloped and producing worth about $15/bbl.The reason for this is because

[Baxter4]

undeveloped 2P oil in the ground worth $4/bbl anddeveloped and producing worth about $15/bbl.There is no such thing as developed 2P (Probable) resources. By definition they are undeveloped.Developed and producing are considered 1P (proven). They do not necessarily need to be producing to still be considered 1PIn 2009, the worldwide Mergers and Acquisitions value of 2P resources (In this case

[sumeroil]

best not to engage with good40, seriously,....