Longford Energy Inc V.LFD

UNRISKED AMOUNT OF OIL IN PLACE

[taxdemicco]

This is per the companies press release of March 2010:
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An initial resource estimate was completed by DeGolyer and MacNaughton Canada Limited in September 2009 for the shallow Tertiary horizons of the discovered field. The independent assessment established a gross unrisked prospective resource with a 'best estimate' of 132 million barrels of potential ultimate recoverable oil on the field as of September 1, 2009. In addition, the Company has identified up to five exploration prospects and leads that could provide significant opportunities to further discoveries and resource expansion.

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Now lets do a little math since numbers don't lie:

 132 million barrels of oil * $ 91 per barrel * 40% share for LFD is:          $ 5 billion dollar asset

 Less:  royalty of 40%                                                                                   2 billion royalty

 Asset Value:                                                                                             $ 3 Billion dollars

 Current market value of LFD                                                                      50 million


 Now  I do understand that there is some cost to this project since as builidng an infrastructure and excavation.  Even if I were to remove 50% as cost, you still have an asset value, unrisked by independent third party of, $ 1.5 billion.

 Remember that LFD said they will be producing oil in Q4-2011, this means the 132 million barrels of oil.  This will bring in huge cash influsion, no more dilution.

 With more money, we find more exploration targets and hence more discoveries.   The new report coming out in January 2011 should show a substantial increase in projected.

 I do understand that there are those whom  might sell at 45 cents or even 60 cents cause profit is good however, keep in mind that SOROS has agreed to buy LFD in September 2011 at 65 cents, meaning that this is a bargain price for him while you think you are selling for a great profit.

Numbers don't lie, but good40 does.

JMHO

[dreamer05]

Your calculation is quite accurate based on the available facts. Asset of 1.5 billionsshould give the stock value of LFD more than 5$ per share, if I am not mistaken. Let'sbe a bit more conservative to cut 50% to about 2.5$ per share which is still a good investment. Please comment, and proof I am wrong.

[good40]

Based on the historic value of asset sales,  the general starting point for producing reserves is around25% of the relevant commodity price.Undeveloped reserves is about 25% the price of producing reserves.Note,  the difference between reserves and Prospective Resource.  There is no risk associated withProspective Resource,  as the definition describes undiscovered resource

[jlmans1]

Good40, please believe me that i value your opinion and posts. Your posts add value here even if most dont agree with themSo i apologise in advance for this light hearted joke:Perhaps others have brought this up before but i am new here:GOOD40 = GOOD 4(for) 0(nothing)GOOD40 = good for nothingHAHA, i'm sorry i couldnt resist. Please dont be offended GOOD40, nothing personal or related your

[good40]

The name was invented for that intention jlmans.  If I remember correctly,  years ago I had to bring it to everyone's  attention myself,  as most,  even today see it as forty.A reminder that anything read on the bullboards is... good for nothing.

[jlmans1]

i'm learning this slowly but surelyIf so why do we waste time on it?I do believe though that people like EOIM know what they're talking about and i have learnt from them and made money taking their advice so not all bad and if i could i would buy people like EOIM a drink and a cigarPity about the rest especially the good for nothings and the annoying people

[good40]

Well then... you are only concerned with selling you shares at a higher price and aren't concerned whetherthe information provided is true,  only that it works to appreciate your investment.You probably are the same as most,  but remember this... providing information that is not true while selling, is calledracketeering.  While most times not prosecuted,  it is a crime and

[EOIM]

Taxdemicco, Very good post. I think you were conservative because you based your analysis only P50 of 132 million. Also, if you recall, the Jeribe formation  has been found to also exist in the Chia Surkh South anticline which most people seems to ignore. We also have additional 4 other exploration prospects. I personally think based on my analysis that the P50 in the discovered Chia

[good40]

I almost forgot to mention... if it wasn't for good40,  then no one would be aware that LFD is subjectto a whopping 40% royalty and only have a 40% working interest.   Now that isn't pleasant to hear,  but it's the truth.Would you rather that potential investors don't hear it ,  because no one else pointed it out ?