Post by
Lambosntendies on Jun 14, 2023 6:16pm
Pieces of the Puzzle
Here is the puzzle as I see it so far and why I think all the pieces that I have suggest a Buyout is imminent. Some of this information has been stated on here, some may be new. Some ideas may create more questions than we have answers for. Maybe I am overanalyzing things, maybe not. If there is a noteworthy piece I am missing please mention it!
Recent Geological Survey – This has been discussed heavily on here already so I wont go into it but the idea of a seemingly unplanned geological survey that had to be rushed and came at a relatively significant cost definitely indicates that something is happening. As people have mentioned before this is most likely a request put in by a buyer.
80% - FandF ownership (no not fast and furious) This is common knowledge but its huge in knowing there is strong value and upside in LME.
DRA - Laurion engages DRA Americas and a month later Vikram Jayaraman is appointed to the technical advisory board and grants him 250,000 stock options at .50 a piece. People like Mr. Jayaraman do not get involved with a company unless there is a strong reason to.
Laser ore sorting – This is huge, again common knowledge but really adds value to the Ishkoday from a derisking standpoint.
Rogers Timing – In April, when Roger was in the Caribbean area he has indicated that he was planning on arriving in Victora in August. Then all of the sudden it seemed like he was racing to get home. Trying to make weather windows. I cannot help but think he was rushing back for some big reason. Maybe to be with Cynthia for an announcement?
Cleared Land - DAM$ Mentions on June 8, 2023 the clearing that has happened on the Ishkoday site and then 5-6 hours later Cynthia had a post validating the information. Trees don’t all just get cut down over night this was a process that took time so why was it never mentioned by the LME team until hours after a user on here posted about it?
“When you least expect it” – Some people have asked Roger when the buyout will happen. He has responded with “soon” and “when you least expect it.” Lets focus for a second on the when you least expect it.. my stomach initially sank when I watched the video earlier today because I thought LME was still shopping for a bid… what they simply had two large shareholders put together a great video showcasing the Ishkoday. Maybe they released it today with the intent of cooling the “buyout is imminent” kool-aid a few of us have been drinking. This creates the idea that the buyout is still a ways off, therefore we are least expecting it tomorrow. (I know philosophically there is a paradoxical argument that can be made against that statement).
Rogers next chapter – Roger has posted about his next boat that is to be built in Poland on facebook, one of his “dream boat posts” included the comment “My next chapter?”. For context Roger has posted about purchasing his second boat after the LME buyout occurs. It is interesting how someone commented a day ago regarding Roger being able to relax for a little bit… his response: “Just for a day or two, then it is the start of my next chapter”
Linkedin - Cynthias 2 most recent linkin posts have contained #privateequity and #familyoffices. I cant help but feel this is a clue/shoutout.
The markets - Right now interest is high and possibly going higher, a recession is coming one way or another (most likely within the next 6-12 months imo). What a great time for an acquiror with cash to by Gold heavy land. When the recession hits labour and construction will be cheaper (i.e. building a mine) as the government lowers interest rates again and creates incentives in order to stimulate the economy again.
How much? – Again relying on Rogers posts (this on from November 9, 2022) – “we could very well see a $5B and even a $10b acquisition within this Gold supercycle (2015-2025)” – Roger also posted months later saying that lmes “price level will pleasantly surprise you” To me this says 5B is a base and we will be pleasantly surprised… so high than $5B I am think closer to $8B.
WMAver prediction - “ It will be a wednesday after trading closes, for a thursday open at much much higher than it was close wednesday. I still think Thursday is the Favorite LME news day, and google tells me it is the most effective day to make a stock announcement! “ I mostly threw this in cuz today is Wednesday and that means tomorrow is Thursday! Lets see if this is the week!
As Roger says “everything is about timing” Get your shares if its not already too late..
Comment by
matlas on Jun 14, 2023 7:16pm
Thanks very much Lambo. I commend you on your eloquence and perceptiveness!
Comment by
Lambosntendies on Jun 14, 2023 8:08pm
Thank you! I can't take all the credit though, a friend and I have been bouncing some of these ideas off of each other for a while and a lot of great posts from people on here all contributed and spurred further ideas. I'm just trying to get everything in one place!
Comment by
newbie8484 on Jun 14, 2023 8:59pm
Thank you for this great info, and inspires confidence! Question regarding individuals who have been issued options. If a buyout is on the horizon, would those individuals such as Vikram not want to execute those asap? I don't really understand how that all works! I would think that would be a strong indication as well! Thanks!
Comment by
Wmaver on Jun 14, 2023 9:04pm
in gerneal the purchasing compsny buys ALL the stocks, outstanding options, warrants and all. rememeber if the announcment was made tomrrow, all the people who have options will still have a few more months before things close anyway.