Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc. V.LME

Where my heads at

[Lambosntendies]

Where I believe we stand today: 2.5M ounces of gold (measured/proven) with an additional, publicly undetermined amount probable/inferred. I believe a buyout deal in the works with a potential upper range of 12M-12.5M Geos total. Perhaps there is another 500,000-1,500,000 geo’s that have been proven but not considered in USCG’s DD.

These numbers take me to the comparison posts with Osisko. they have a ballpark estimate with slightly higher proven numbers but a lower total number of GEOs. Goldfields bought Osisko 50% for $1.6B valuing the company at $3.2B for 10.6M ounces total. The breakdown: 4.1M measured/indicated, 3.3M oz inferred and 3.2M probable.

People should not assign a total value of LME based on the 2.5M proven because it doesn’t account for the additional probable and inferred portion also which I believe to be in the range of 9.5-10M for a total MRE of around 12-12.5M Geos. This is derived from data in the NI43-101 report.

When compared with Osisko I can’t see us selling for less than $2.5B. That should be our floor which, when factoring in recent dilution, will put us in the neighbourhood of $9USD/share and from the fact that the Osisko deal had an effective value of $3.2B and they had more proven geos but less GEOs than us overall (assuming 12-12.5M  total GEOS) it’s fairly safe to assume that we should be much closer to $11.60USD/share or more. These number also do not factor in drilling that has proven additional resources that are not included in the NI43-101.

Where is the meat on the bone for the buyer? In bringing the Ishkoday from 2.5M proven to the upper range of 12.5M PROVEN as well as the gains in the projected forecast as Gold trends higher well into 2030 and beyond. The buyer is buying the proven resources as well as opportunity of taking the additional 10M GEOS (give or take) from probable to proven which would increase the value of the property exponentially. Yes there is a risk involved for the buyer but because they have risk does not mean they get the Ishkoday for nothing ($2-$3).

If we focus on the 2.5M gold ounces proven and you assume a price of $350USD per ounce in a buyout event that is roughly 3.17 USD per share. You people calling for a sale of 2-3 is ridiculous. You really expect Cythia to just give away ALL the inferred/probable GEOs for free?

And before some idiot decides to start spouting off their mouth that the Ishkoday is 0.11g/t property I should note that you cannot take the LOWEST range from a SINGLE ZONE on the report in Gold (0.1 g/t from the M21 zone) and attribute that value to the total value of the property in the same way you cannot take highest range of gold (8.7g/t in zone sturgeon no. 3) and assume the entire propoerty has that much gold.

It is purely idiotic especially when the M21 zone has the lowest tonnage out of any other zone (techincally tied with ahki zone for lowest tonnage range). If you are going to value the Ishkoday based on the lowest ranking zone out of 20 zones noted in the report then maybe junior mining is not for you... in fact I can ask my wife if her kindergarten class has room for another student. You will love all the colours of crayons there.  

Back to business. 

There is also great upside for the buyer of the Ishkoday as extraction costs are forecasted to be quite low. While those exact numbers specific to the Ishkoday have not been publicly disclosed yet Osisko mining has AISC of $758 USD/oz and cash costs of $587USD/oz. It stands to reason that our numbers will be quite comparable.

A brief timeline:

In 2018 Roger had posted with a target sale price of 4-8 per share for Lme between 2020-2024

May-July of 2019 metals house and Lme formed their partnership with Covello and Burmi joining the board of directors

Early-mid 2022 Reported leaks from multiple sources about a $10 buyout.

Sept- Nov 2022 Nick sold shares right before the rumoured deal failed to come to fruition. Shortly after/during this management pivoted and engaged DRA and Vikram Jayaraman was appointed to the board.

Nov. 2022 Roger also makes his infamous post that as gold nears 2,000 and goes beyond 3,000 we could see a 5-10B buyout.

June 2023 - special committee was formed 

August 2023 - Steven hunter is engaged for Pr in an agreement where he effectively does not receive compensation unless Lme sells during his tenure.

September 2023 - Nick resigns.

October 2023 - Lme acquires twin falls strategically adding value to their land package

January 2024 – Steven Hunter confirms Metal house has not participated in the PPs and the PPs have been long term shareholders and that they were involved in the last 5 PPs up to this point. This leads me to believe that these PPs were an undisclosed entity “legging in”.

February 2024 - Lme engages Doug Vass, publishes maiden esg report and property of merit.

Spring 2024 - Doug confirms USCG has completed due diligence and is moving onto next steps.

August 2024 – Updated PR with no references to USCG named directly. 

October 2024 – leaked PowerPoint confirms 2.5M oz PROVEN. No public disclosure over total resources. Another PP is announced and closed.

With all this said we are on the brink of a transaction. numbers have been validated and USCG has given their opinion on value and mineralization quantities. All that is left is for a partner or partners to buy LME and take the company private. It will be business as usual until this happens.

The recent PP is positive. This private entity that is legging in just increased their position. I am not sure why a deal has not been announced yet but as time passes and we raise more money we drill more holes that will spit out more proof of the gold deposits on the Ishkoday which will ultimately translate to a higher proven gold resource which, at the end of the day, equals a higher buyout price. 

- Lambo

[goldenI]

Here is what I learned in kindergarten: 1. People who disagree with me are not "idiots" 2. Words have meanings. Measured/Proven/Inferred have defined meanings to 43-101 standards. Congrats I guess on not also abusing Indicated, but the numbers and the qualifications you present cannot be backed up at all. As for the Osiko mine comparison, what exactly are you comparing? They have three

[GoldenBull999]

we have several seemingly very knowledgeable mining dudes on this forum and all their opions differ.... one says this is a tier 3 asset that needs capital injection to get the most out of the BO...others think the BO is imminent (and they have thought this way for multiple years) and itll be $4-30+ CAD....really its anyone's guess...they're good at keeping us all in the dark and confused..

[Toddsquad]

.... what is the penalty ($Fine Value?) if a publically traded company does not fulfill the AGM requirments?

[Wmaver]

they only have to annoucne it 21 days before the meeting,  so really they still have a few weeks to announce before christmas. OR they are taking the TSX.V leway and doing the 15 month thing, and having the AGM in Jan/Feb.

[DAM$]

No penalty if they sell it before the year end. And there is no 15 month leeway as they must have one every year 

[Lambosntendies]

1. If you are going to quote me please do not take it out of context. I did not say people who disagree with me are idiots. I said “And before some idiot decides to start spouting off their mouth that the Ishkoday is 0.11g/t property I should note that you cannot take the LOWEST range from a SINGLE ZONE on the report in Gold (0.1 g/t from the M21 zone) and attribute that value to the total value

[Planthouse]

Going to piggyback off of this to give my opinion + clarify some numbers and info since I’ve finally gotten around to reading the Technical Report.   Osisko's Windfall Project GEOs were double counted. Their 4.1M measured & indicated (M&I) resources already includes the 3.2M probable reserves. For those who don't understand the difference, M&I resources are high

[goldenI]

@Planthouse I want to create 100 accounts to like this more.

[Smitty64]

Seems like there is some major polarity from respected posters (that have much more knowledge than myself). @Lambo seems to think we are in the midst of a BO for a low of ~ $9USD/share, while @goldenI and @planthouse think we are years away and not even close to $9/share right now. Can the other members of the LME Stockhouse Mount Rushmore chime in please: @ahsineeg and @DAM$, you’ve both been

[DAM$]

First, I agree with Lambo’s assessment and his total of 12+ M Ozs and that they are in discussions to sell now. The only thing I see delaying a deal is the appearance of competitive bids coming from the latest USCG offer sheet pdf. Although USCG has likely given the board a value assessment, there will be another FA hired to give a final Fairness evaluation as USCG would likely be seen as biased

[Smitty64]

Thank you DAM$! 2 questions:  1. What makes you have the current belief that we're in the "31 day" timeline? 2. Can someone please re-share the link to the M&A timeline that has been circled on this forum before? I can't seem to find a previous post where it's linked to (I know Lambo has linked it before) Thanks

[DAM$]

Answer to one I will discuss over drinks at the after party. But it began with the Announcement without being able to name names, Rogers and Doug's posts then the Cynthia goodbye and thank you to those who she worked with at the site and a couple of things I have seen and noticed since. Let the complainers complain about my lack of facts. Answer to two is look back about 200 pages of posts

[GoldBelt]

Hello Dams thanks for your imput always!  Now if there's indeed competing bids, what is the hold up if  LMEs insistence is only an all cash deal? Wouldn't they just choose the highest $ offer? Perhaps there is more parts to to this deal such as joint ventures and/ royalty streams(like GBR had) being negotiated?

[DAM$]

If company B comes in with a better offer then LME's SC would have a meeting then they would have a management meeting . Then go back to company A and ask if they want to make a stronger bid which would take a few days. Company B's offer could come with a request of more access or site visits before making an official offer. Some of the examples I've looked at included multiple bidders

[Smitty64]

This all sounds great but the pessimist in me sees the release (leak) of the official USCG .pdf dated “October” as a negative. To me, this means they are currently shopping it around to new potential prospects (as you would date any proposal you are presenting to prospective clients at the current date/month) – which would mean they are at an “introductory”/”pitch”/”top of funnel” stage. This

[TraderRC]

Good day all,  Smitty, if I were a betting man, I would not hang my head on the date on the presentation as an indication that they are starting at the top of the funnel. To be clear, I am not an Adobe wizard, but in the PDF presentation, you can add a JavaScript feature that would allow the date to be updated automatically.  I am not saying that this PDF had the feature, but it is

[GoldenBull999]

I feel volume will be more of an indicator of something absolutely imminent. We may have a "blackout" period around the announcement of the PP of several weeks, enough time for this drilling campaign to finish and coincide that with a BO announcement at the tail end of the year,   Still no AGM set...thats another sign to me anyway. 

[Timeandmoney]

Smitty, Your skepticism is understood given the seemingly endless over promising and under delivering track record of the LME communications team over the past several years. However, you may want to think of the SC instructing USGC to "keep looking" for other potential buyers as nothing more than prudent sales management. If the LME SC were in talks with a potential purchaser

[Lambosntendies]

Here is the link I had posted earlier this year that details the m&a process in a broad scope.  https://www.smartsheet.com/content/merger-and-acquisition-process here is a link to a couple of images for a plan of arrangement take over, which I believe will be the case for LME. I apologize in advance as you may have to click the link if they don't embed properly.  Page 1

[Planthouse]

The main problem with valuing LME is that there is a large range for a buyout and the number of GEOs is in question. There’s been no public information that would indicate 12M+ GEOs. I do believe LME is an amazing property with incredible potential, so it’s entirely possible there are these significant amounts of GEOs, I just don’t see how that can be deduced from an analysis of the Technical