The 2022 FS used POG = $1750
I used $2250 US just to update the free annual cash flow ( 2250- $1750 times 50,000 ounces per year = $25 million USD per year.
Everything else was assumed to be the same .
I have checked Total Cash costs for open pits in Canada in 2024 and the estimate for 2022 FS is slightlly higher.
Recovery will be higher too and capex will be substantiavely reduced due to the $41 m needed to upgrade the Nugget Pond mill wont be needed.
However, none of the above has been changed except the Free Cash flow to the balance sheet.
So free annual cash flow increases to $66.5 million USD per year which is $90 million per year in CAD.
Which is $1 per fd postconsolidated share Typically current gold stocks trade above 7.5 times free cash flows , so the valuation of MAE will be quite robust .
Notes....Mine life will expand to at least 8 years in the new FS due to the addition of Stoger, Orion and the other 3 discovereis at HD.
This will substantively increase the NPV to over $400 million
CONCLUSION A realistic change only in the POG will triple the NPV and Valuation estimated in the 2022 FS using $1750 TCC . | | | | |
| 2022 FS USD | | | |
| ITEM | UNITS | TOTAL | |
| Mine life | years | 5 | |
| Ore tonnes | kt | 1,895 | |
| Waste tonnes | Mt | 38.5 | |
| Strip ratio | waste:ore | 20.3 | |
| ROM ore production | tpd | 1,200 | |
| ROM gold grade | Au gpt | 4.46 | |
| Sorting plant waste rejection | % | 40.0 | |
| Sorting plant gold recovery | % | 95.0 | |
| Mill throughput | tpd | 700 | |
| Mill head grade after sorting | Au gpt | 6.76 | |
| Tonnes milled | Kt | 1,189 | |
| Mill gold recovery | % | 95.5 | |
| Gold produced | oz | 247,346 | |
| Avg. annual production | oz | 50,000 | |
| Mining cost | $/t moved | 4.31 | |
| Mineral processing | $/t milled | 48.06 | |
| Trucking from sorting plant to mill | $/t milled | 25.50 | |
| General & Administrative | $/t milled | 12.04 | |
| Cash costs1,4 | US$/oz | 897 | |
| AISC per ounce gold1,4 | US$/oz | 912 | |
| Total initial capital3 | $M | 75.0 | |
| Total sustaining capital | $M | 4.9 | |
| Avg. annual free cash flow | $M | 41.4 | $66.5 |
| After-tax NPV(5%)4 | $M | 102.8 | |
| After-tax IRR4 | % | 48.1 | |
| Payback period2 | years | 1.7 | |