Post by
nozzpack on May 26, 2023 8:09am
2023 Gold Production Estimate
There were no caveats to the SRK 2023 production estimate this year, so they can be accepted with much firmer conviction than the June 2022 projection when there was a production caveat inserted by Majestic as to average grades and TPA for 2023 .
This year the 2023 production was made from a standpoint of Dec 31/2022, so it should be pretty firm .
SRK forecasts 2390 KG of gold produced in 2023, including SJ North , at an average grade of 1.26 gms per ton which is 77,000 ounces ( 2390000 gms / 31.1 gms ).
Or 1.900 million Tons Per year X 1.26 gms /ton = 77,000
SRK arrives at this estimate assuming that the current ore reserves are exhausted at exit Q1 of 2023 when 10000 ounces were produced .
In other words , about 68000 ounces for the last 3 quarters which is about 22,000 ounces per quarter..
Very simply, 475 000 tons **3 ** 1.46 gms /ton / 31.1 gms per ton 67,000 ounces for the last 3 quarters.
However, the HKEX document states that it will take two quarters to exhaust the current residual reserves from the former defined pit.
About 20,000 ounces more or less for the first two quarters.
That leaves 950,000 tons at 1.46 gms per ton for the last two quarters which is 44,000 ounces .
According to the HKEX documentation ,my calculations are 2023 Production will be about 64,000 ounces.( 44,000 + 20,000 ) .
The HKEX document has a later date of completion than the Dec 31/22 date of completion,.
So my call is about 64,000 ounces for 2023 , with about 44000 of those ounces in the second half of 2023...but SRK could also be right, as they may decide to go directly to Bench #3 mining in Q2.
At $1900 US POG = $2500 CAD , annual gross revenues in 2023 will be about $160 million CAD ( 64,000 ounces ** $2500 /oz ) .
Or it could be as high as 77000 ** $2500 = $190 million .
Gross margins are over 50 %, so the operating earnings will be huge .
In 2024, TPA will increase to 2.3 m TPA with annual production of 96,000 ounces
Going forward, production will be sustained at about 125,000 ounces per year right up to the end of this Phase 2 of SJ production LOM.
We then proceed proceeding onwards , as by then the at least as we have more than one more phase ( Phase 111 ) remaining in our currrent Inferred Resources ( 1.2 m ounces ).
To this we can add what will be added from drilling just below the 21+ m floor level of the current pit to 500 m below the floor which is excluded from our current 43-110 gold resources but which will be drill defined in the interim 8 years.
In other words, at least 2 more phases , after this phase is mined out in 8 years hence.
Can you imagine what these numbers will do to our share price once we are listed on the HKEX and the Promo machine gets going in a month or two..
Comment by
richard45161 on May 28, 2023 7:50am
an average gold price of US$ 1650 is used to calculate gold sales fpr 2023 and 2024. Should be beatable www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2023/105403/2023052200973.htm APPENDIX III - SRK REPORT - page 157