Post by
DanWarren on Feb 10, 2023 12:41pm
Short Position Updated for January 31, 2023
Short Position Updated for January 31, 2023
NFGC
Sep 30 - 1,040,000
Oct 14 - 666,790
Oct 31 - 675,100
Nov 15 - 616,390
Nov 30 - 659, 530
Dec 13 - 622, 000
Dec 30 - 593,340
Jan 13 - 481,350
Jan 31 - 399,960
NFG.V
Aug 14 - 1,190,712
Aug 30 - 1,168,127
Sep 14 - 1,175,202
Sep 30 - 1,260,000
Oct 14 - 1,252,170
Oct 31 - 1,090,000
Nov 15 - 666,790
Nov 30 - 1,280,000
Dec 14 - 661,543
Dec 30 - 586,310
Jan 14 - 632,722
Jan 30 - 635,080
Total
Sep 30 - 2.300,000
Oct 14 - 1,918,960
Oct 31 - 1,765,100
Nov 15 - 1,283,180
Nov 30 - 1,939,530
Dec 14 - 1,283,543
Dec 30 - 1,179,650
Jan 13 - 1,113,000
Jan 31 - 1,035,040
Total Increase / Decrease for Two Week Period
Oct 14, 2022 - down 381,040
Oct 31, 2022 - down 153,860
Nov 15, 2022 - down 481,920
Nov 30, 2022 - up 656, 350
Dec 14, 2022 - down 655,987
Dec 30, 2022 - down 103,893
Jan 14 2023 - down 65,578
Jan 31 2023 - down 79,032
I think the key mover for the daily trading activity of NFG.V / NFGC is the Short position which is, in my theory, (and I think a number of others assume this?, too) is controlled mainly by one large player ( large enough to have a 2 million short position).
It is clear the Short is covering. The anomaly was 656,000 increase in the short position for the period ending Nov 30. But, this was the time of the significant rally in NFG due to the hugely significant discovery of Keats West, proving significan gold was located WEST of the Appleton Fault Zone, an idea which had NOT been believed prior. A number of key players in the Queensway story admitted this was HUGE news, but, even this fact was not trumpeted across the gold exploration following media, conforming to the QUIET, non trumpeting NFG promotion culture (more accurately, 'non-promotion' culture?).
So, at the time of this 656,000 increase in the short position, I theorized that this was the action of the Short position trying to CAP the strong rally. In retrospect, it looks like this notion was spot on. The next two week period saw a matched DECREASE in the Short position of 655,000!
Since then, the decreases in the Short position have declined to between 100,000 and 65,000 for each two week period. But, so has average trading volume for NFG / NFGC. Which also fits my theory that it was getting quite hard for the Short position to buy back shares to cover in this low volume situation of NFG.
In order for the Short to cover the total short position the Short has to continue to prevent the NFG share price from getting into an obvious uptrend. Thus they have to use the tactic of selling more shares short to control the price. They can also use more Short selling to try to 'Walk Down' the share price intra day, and try to push the share price a bit lower as best they can. But, KEY for the Short is to Cover....this sets precedence over pushing the share price lower if they can. But, IF they can push the share price lower by, let's say 20 cents or so, on any given day, this might shake a few more shares out, as appeared to happen on Feb 9th.
The Key strategy of the Short is to Buy Back more shares than they sell Short on a daily basis. Maybe after a news release, they sell more shares short than they buy back on a given day. But, as long as they CAP any rally, they can make up the difference in the days ahead.
So, I have been trying to get a handle on how long it will take the Short to cover. If we assume a weekly BUY BACK of shares by the Short of about 40,000 shares, this would mean another six months....but, there could be a lot of news in such a long time frame, and I assume this will be highly favorable to NFG.....So, how will the Short COVER their position in NFG / NFGC in the weeks and months ahead?
I stated before that the Short should have covered last summer. They overplayed their hand, and now, with the latest financing behind NFG, and the massive drilling campaign, and gold still being found all over the massive Queensway project, AND gold and gold stocks looking to be beginning a long term uptrend, the Short is in a precarious position.
These daily 'Walk Downs' of the NFG price is choreographed by the Short position, I strongly believe. There is so much evidence, from the Basher campaign to the seemingly planted hit pieces, written in a derogatory story so strange for a 'news' publication.
The best action to take for investors is to realize what is controlling the daily price action, don't sell out to the Short position, and if you are a believer in the NFG and Queensway story, compete against the Short in buying shares at this level if you are establishing or expanding a position in NFG.
My expectation is that these are the lows for NFG going forward, and once the Short has COVERED, NFG will no longer be subject to the constant manipulation, and, due to news flow, will be entering a long term uptrend, where rallies will be able to stick, with normal pull backs, of course.