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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Nevada Geothermal Power Inc V.NGP

TSXV:NGP - Post Discussion

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Post by riverrock on Jul 19, 2012 4:58pm

NGP: CASE 2

For CASE 2, EIG also takes a 60% interest in BM 1, with NGP receiving $2 million per year from EIG as the operator of EIG's interest. Presently the BM 1 PPA should be about $80 per MW and will increase 1% annually until the end of its term. With both EIG and NGP as joint owners of BM 1, they might seek a new PPA. Also the present EIG loan which presently has ~$88.4 million outstanding on it will no longer be a detriment to NGP.

 

 

For a 41MW net plant, annual sales will come to ~$28.73 million during the first year, of which 60% or ~$17.24 million will go to EIG and the remaining ~$11.49 million to NGP, plus an additional $2 million operators fee (my estimate) for a total of ~$13.49 million to NGP, leaving EIG with ~$15.24 million after the operators fee..

 

Now we look at what EIG may give up, they would give up $14.84 million on the P & I of their very high 14% interest loan loan, but they would own 60% of a geothermal plant worth over $160 million, (my estimate) an interest that they can later sell, if they so desired. What I'm trying to bring forth is though EIG will not receive the original P & I on the loan, they will receive more than the principal on the $88.40 million loan, which divided by 13 years (the remaining term) would be ~$6.79 million annually from their sales proceeds, leaving $15.24 – 6.79, or ~$8.45 million. Then 60% of approximately ~$6 million would be plant depreciation, giving cash flow of ~$3.60 million, providing EIG a total of 6.94 + 3.6 or, ~$10.54 million toward the $14.84 million P & I with ~$4.85 million for other expenses.

 

NGP with $13.49 million minus the JH loan of $7.3 million would have about $6.19 million for their purpose, of which $2.40 million would be depreciation, leaving $3.79 million for other expenses. More importantly NGP will no longer have onus of the EIG loan hanging over it and retain her past tax write offs. In addition with ~25 million shares after the proposed reverse split, she should attract interest from potential shareholders and lenders.

 

Comment by investwisely123 on Jul 19, 2012 9:13pm
Interesting thoughts. I am not sure on your valuation ($160m) as the value isn't so much attributed to the plant but also to the infrastructure (i.e the various wells).  I don't profess to be an expert on geothermal but isn't one of their other problems also the fact that the cooled liquid injected back into the ground is cooling the steam reservoirs and not allowing them to ...more  
Comment by riverrock on Jul 20, 2012 5:16pm
  Actually I estimated the entire entity at $160 million, which includes the wells, its infrastructure including the power line to the utility's substation.     Geothermal resource companies like most all resource start-ups experience difficulties. Check out the new production created by Ram Power, US Geothermal and Alterra Power's  NA projects and compare them with ...more